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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 14, 2018
Total business inventories increased 0.3% (4.4% y/y) during April following a 0.1% March slip. Total business sales rose 0.4% (6.7% y/y), following a 0.6% gain. The inventory-to-sales ratio held steady at 1.35. It peaked early in 2016 at 1.43.
Retail inventories increased 0.5% (2.5% y/y) in April after a 0.7% decline during March. Auto inventories grew 0.7% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.9% fall. Non-auto retail inventories increased 0.4% (2.8% y/y) following a 0.6% decline. General merchandise inventories rose 0.8% (-0.6% y/y) after a 1.9% shortfall. In the department store sector, inventories edged 0.5% higher (-4.9% y/y) following a 1.2% drop. Building materials inventories gained 0.5% (5.7% y/y) after a 0.2% rise, while clothing store inventories rose 0.4% (0.6% y/y) after falling 0.6%. Inventories of furniture, electronics and appliances declined 0.3% (+1.4% y/y), the fifth decline in seven months. As reported last week, wholesale inventories edged 0.1% higher (5.8% y/y) following a 0.2% rise. Factory sector inventories rose 0.3% (5.0% y/y) following a 0.2% gain.
Retail sales increased 0.4% in April (4.9% y/y) with non-auto sales up 0.5% (5.2% y/y). Wholesale sector sales increased 0.8% (7.8% y/y) after improving 0.4%. Shipments from the factory sector held steady (7.2% y/y) following a 0.7% rise.
The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio in the retail sector held steady at 1.44 in April, down from the levels averaged during the prior two years. The non-auto I/S ratio held steady at 1.21 and remained near its lowest level since early-2012. The wholesale sector I/S ratio eased to 1.28, nearly its lowest level since December 2014. The manufacturing sector I/S ratio held steady at 1.35, its lowest point in three years.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Retail | 0.5 | -0.7 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 3.9 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
Manufacturing | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 6.7 | 5.8 | -0.8 | -3.4 |
Retail | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 7.8 | 7.4 | -1.3 | -4.9 |
Manufacturing | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.42 | 1.39 |
Retail | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.46 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.49 | 1.46 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.28 | 1.27 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.35 | 1.33 |
Manufacturing | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.41 | 1.39 |