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U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens
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The Philadelphia Fed reported in its Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey that the General Business Conditions Index rebounded this month to 13.7...
by Tom Moeller June 14, 2018
Consumers were in a shopping mood last month. Total retail sales increased 0.8% (5.9% y/y) during May following a 0.4% April gain, revised from 0.3%. It was the strongest monthly increase since November. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales rose 0.9% (6.4% y/y) after a 0.4% increase, revised from 0.3%. It also was the firmest gain in six months. A 0.5% rise had been expected.
A 2.4% improvement (5.2% y/y) in building materials & garden equipment store sales led the increase as it followed a 1.8% gain. Clothing & accessory store sales also were strong and jumped 1.3% (5.9% y/y), about as they did in April. Purchases at general merchandise stores gained 1.2% (5.0% y/y ) after a 0.3% decline. Furniture & home furnishing store sales increased 0.8% (6.1% y/y) after strengthening 1.4%. Nonstore retailers posted a 0.6% rise (9.6% y/y) in sales after two monthly increases of roughly 1.0%. Sales of motor vehicles & parts rose 0.5% (4.0% y/y) on the heels of a 0.2% gain. The increase compared to a 1.5% decline in unit vehicle sales reported earlier this month. Electronics & appliance store sales improved 0.2% (1.9% y/y) following a 0.1% dip. To the downside were sales at furniture & home furnishings stores which fell 2.4% (+3.5% y/y) and reversed the prior month's gain. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store purchases declined 1.1% (-0.7% y/y) after a 0.2% slip.
Purchases at gasoline service stations increased 2.0% (17.7% y/y) as the pump price of gasoline rose.
Sales of nondiscretionary items were mixed last month. Health & personal care store sales gained 0.5% (2.9% y/y) as they did in April. Food & beverage store sales were fairly steady (3.6% y/y) following a 0.5% increase.
Individuals recovered an interest in eating out last month. Food service & drinking establishment sales increased 1.3% (5.1% y/y) after a 0.3% fall.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| Retail Sales | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 7.2 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 17.7 | 8.8 | -5.7 | -17.6 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 1.3 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 8.2 |
