Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Peter D'Antonio May 31, 2018
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer rebounded sharply in May, with the index reaching 62.7 following readings near 57.5 in March and April. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had anticipated only a modest rise to 58.1. The Chicago Purchasing Managers figures are diffusion indexes where readings above 50 indicate growth.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted index (combining Chicago-area new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories) with similar methodology as the ISM Composite Index. This index increased by 3.1 points to 60.9, which is consistent with healthy economic growth.
The rise in the overall Chicago index reflected solid gains in several components. Production reversed the previous two month slide by rising 6.0 points to a healthy 65.0. New orders similarly bounced back to 63.5. However, the biggest rebound occurred in order backlogs, which jumped 11.0 points to 60.7. Order backlog readings above 60 are rare. Meanwhile, delivery times remained slow (a positive indicator for growth) with a reading of 66.4.
Rebounds in the employment and inventory indexes were more muted. In terms of jobs, twenty-four percent of firms (NSA) reported more workers, while only fourteen percent reported fewer.
The prices paid measure edged down slightly in May, but remained very high at 77.1. Readings in the past two months have been the highest since 2011. Fifty-six percent of purchasing managers reported paying higher prices, while only two percent paid lower prices. This skewed result probably reflected the recent rise in energy prices.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database, with detail including the ISM-style index in the SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | May | Apr | Mar | May '17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Business Barometer | 62.7 | 57.6 | 57.4 | 59.3 | 60.8 | 53.1 | 50.3 |
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 60.9 | 57.8 | 59.3 | 59.0 | 59.0 | 52.0 | 51.6 |
Production | 65.0 | 59.0 | 55.2 | 62.7 | 64.3 | 54.7 | 52.5 |
New Orders | 63.5 | 58.0 | 58.6 | 62.2 | 63.5 | 55.7 | 50.4 |
Order Backlogs | 60.7 | 49.7 | 50.7 | 52.0 | 55.2 | 47.2 | 44.4 |
Inventories | 54.9 | 53.8 | 59.5 | 55.2 | 54.9 | 47.2 | 52.1 |
Employment | 54.7 | 52.1 | 59.4 | 55.9 | 52.9 | 49.4 | 50.3 |
Supplier Deliveries | 66.4 | 66.0 | 63.8 | 59.1 | 59.4 | 52.8 | 52.6 |
Prices Paid | 71.5 | 75.9 | 69.9 | 58.2 | 64.0 | 53.2 | 46.8 |