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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Tumble
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 4.1% w/w (+39.7% y/y) in the weekend January 22...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Recovers During January
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 2.5% (-31.5% y/y) to 89.3 during January...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Rose Further in November
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.0% m/m in November...
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.39 per gallon (-4.5% y/y) in the week ended January 25...
U.K. Retail Survey Shows Extreme Weakness
The CBI U.K. retail volume survey shows dramatically weakened data for January and for the February outlook...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 25, 2018
New orders for durable goods fell 1.7% (7.8 y/y) during April following a 2.7% March increase, revised from 2.6%. Expectations had been for a 1.2% decline in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A 6.1% decline (+7.7% y/y) in orders for transportation equipment pulled the overall figure lower. It reversed the 6.9% rise in March. Aircraft orders alone declined 24.0%. They were accompanied, however, by a 1.8% rise in orders for motor vehicles and parts. Excluding the transportation sector altogether, durable goods orders rose 0.9% following a 0.4% rise. It was the third consecutive monthly increase.
Orders for nondefense capital goods declined 6.8% (+8.5% y/y) and reversed most of the 8.8% rise during March. Orders excluding aircraft increased by 1.0%, however, and reversed the 0.9% March decline. The level of orders has risen 13.4% from its low in May 2016. Defense capital goods orders increased 7.5% (-29.5% y//y) and reversed the prior month's 7.8% decline.
Within the other durable goods sectors, electrical equipment bookings improved 2.6% (8.1% y/y), about as they did in each of the prior two months. Fabricated metals orders increased 2.0% (12.0% y/y) following a 1.2% gain. Orders for primary metals increased 1.3% (17.4% y/y) following even stronger increases in both of the prior two months. Computer & electronic equipment orders rose 1.1% (8.0% y/y) following a 1.5% rise. That rise was powered by a 5.3% strengthening in orders for computers & related products which remained down by 12.2% y/y. Machinery orders declined 0.8% (+2.5% y/y) after a 3.2% drop.
Shipments of durable goods eased 0.1% (+7.3% y/y) owing to a 2.1% decline (+5.5% y/y) in transportation equipment. Shipments excluding transportation equipment rose 1.0% (8.2% y/y). Unfilled durable orders rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y), up for the fourth month in the last five. Backlogs excluding the transportation sector gained 0.4% (4.7% y/y) as they did in March. Durable goods inventories increased 0.3% (4.9% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. Inventories outside of the transportation sector rose 0.3% (5.7% y/y) following two months of 0.5% increase.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders (SA, % chg) | -1.7 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 5.4 | -1.7 | -4.6 |
Transportation | -6.1 | 6.9 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | -0.7 | -6.3 |
Total Excluding Transportation | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 7.9 | 6.5 | -2.3 | -4.2 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | -6.8 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 8.5 | 9.1 | -5.8 | -11.8 |
Excluding Aircraft | 1.0 | -0.9 | 1.6 | 5.9 | 6.7 | -4.5 | -5.5 |
Shipments | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | -2.4 | -0.8 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
Inventories | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 4.9 | 4.6 | -3.0 | 0.9 |