Recent Updates
- **EIA releases, including WPSR, are delayed by the source**
- US: New Residential Sales (May)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Apr)
- Italy: Non-EU International Trade (May)
- Mexico: Economic Activity (Apr), Construction (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Charles Steindel May 23, 2018
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve has released updated estimates of coincident indexes by state. The coincident indexes are computed from a dynamic factor model relating a number of other monthly variables (primarily from the labor market) available at the state level. The derived indexes are transformed to have a trend comparable to that of a state’s real GDP. With this release, the levels of the indexes are now presented in the form that their average value for 2007 is equal to 100. While the Philly measures provide only a broad-brush idea of developments in a state’s economy, the common construction allows one to get a better sense of how a state is doing relative to others.
The April numbers show increases in activity in virtually all the nation. The comparable national measure was 2.8% higher than a year earlier. Michigan was the only state to show a decline over the last 12 months, but the gains in West Virginia and Arkansas were less than one-half percent. California was the fastest-growing state, with its index up 4.7%. A number of other states also reported gains of 4 percent or higher, perhaps most importantly (for its national weight, Texas). Still, a full 35 states reported increases between 1.9% (Louisiana) and 3.9% (Florida).
The write-up for the release of the data emphasizes growth over the last three months. There too, there appears to be reasonably widespread growth. Maryland was the only state where April’s level of activity was said to be below January’s. 8 states saw gains between .1% and .6%; 11 reported growth in excess of 1.0%, while 30 were in the .6% to 1.0% range. Of the 4 largest states, Texas saw growth above 1.0%, while California, New York, and Florida were all in that .6% to 1.0% area (though California’s increase, from the data issued by the Bank, appears to have been 1.04%!).