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Economy in Brief
U.S. Leading Indicators Rebounded in March
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rebounded in March, rising 1.3% m/m (+7.9% y/y)...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Increases in March
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index increased to 1.71 during March...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Strengthens in April
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to a record 31 in April...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fall Again to a New Pandemic-Period Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased again in the week ending April 17, reaching 547,000...
U.K. CBI Optimism Speaks Volumes
The U.K. CBI survey saw its order component backtrack in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 10, 2018
Initial unemployment insurance claims were steady w/w at 211,000 (-11.6% y/y) in the week ending May 5. Claims were expected to rise to 219,000 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average declined to 216,000, the lowest four-week average of claims since December 1969. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the month-to-month change in nonfarm payroll employment.
In the week ending April 28, continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.790 million (-7.1% y/y) from a revised 1.760 million. The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1.813 million from 1.815 million. Both continuing claims and their four-week average are at their lowest level since December 1973
The insured rate of unemployment edged up to 1.3%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ending April 21, the lowest rates of insured unemployed were Nebraska (0.42%), North Carolina (0.45%), Florida (0.45%), South Dakota (0.48%), Indiana (0.53%) and Tennessee (0.56%). The highest rates were in Illinois (1.76%), Pennsylvania (1.77%), California (2.02%), New Jersey (2.22%), Connecticut (2.32%), and Alaska (3.01%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 05/05/18 | 04/28/18 | 04/21/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 211 | 211 | 209 | -11.6 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,790 | 1,760 | -7.1 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.3 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |