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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
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U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone, CBE May 3, 2018
Output per hour in the nonfarm business sector rose 0.7% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q1'18 following a 0.3% rise in Q4'17; the latter was revised from zero change reported in March. The consensus in the Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a Q1 gain of 0.9%. Q1 output rose at a 2.8% rate (3.6% y/y) after a 3.7% increase during Q4, while hours worked were up at a 2.1%% rate (2.2% y/y). Data were again revised back to 2013 and in some cases 2010, owing to moderate revisions in underlying data on hours, compensation and output for detailed industries from original source agencies.
Unit labor costs increased at a 2.7% rate (1.1% y/y) after Q4's 2.1% advance, revised from 2.5%. A 3.0% rise had been expected in the Action Economics survey. Compensation costs increased 3.4% (2.5% y/y), following a 2.4% gain.
In the manufacturing sector, productivity grew at a modest 0.5% pace in Q1. Q4's original 6.0% advance was revised to 4.5%. Output increased at a 3.3% pace in Q1 (2.5% y/y) after 5.6% in Q4, while hours worked grew 2.8% (1.6% y/y) following 1.1% in Q4.
Unit labor costs in the factory sector rose a 2.7% rate (+1.3% y/y), following a 2.2% decline. Compensation per hour grew 3.2% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.2% rise.
The productivity & cost figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey and are found in the AS1REPNA database.
Productivity & Costs (SAAR, %) | Q1'18 | Q4'17 | Q3'17 | Q1'18 Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nonfarm Business Sector | |||||||
Output per Hour (Productivity) | 0.7 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
Compensation per Hour | 3.4 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 3.1 |
Unit Labor Costs | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
Manufacturing Sector | |||||||
Output per Hour (Productivity) | 0.5 | 4.5 | -4.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.3 |
Compensation per Hour | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
Unit Labor Costs | 2.7 | -2.2 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.2 |