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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.39 per gallon (-4.5% y/y) in the week ended January 25...
Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Further During January
The Dallas Fed reported that its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey General Business Activity Index fell to 7.0 during January...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
German IFO Gauge Weakens Again
The IFO climate diffusion gauge fell to -0.6 in January...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Edge Up in December; 2020 Sales Are Highest Since 2006
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes rose 0.7% (22.2% y/y) during December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen May 3, 2018
Manufacturers' orders gained 1.6% (+8.1% year-on-year) during March, the second consecutive monthly increase of this magnitude. Manufacturing shipments rose 0.4% (6.8% y/y) to a record high $503 billion. Shipments have grown for 12 consecutive months.
Orders in the volatile durable goods sector jumped 2.6% (9.6% y/y) following a 3.6% gain in February. Orders for transportation equipment soared 7.6% (15.0% y/y) due to a 44.5% surge in volatile civilian aircraft bookings. Total factory orders excluding transportation edged up 0.3% (6.6% y/y). Machinery orders fell 1.9% (+5.4% y/y) after a 0.6% gain. Orders for computers & electronic products rose 1.0% (10.1% y/y), following two consecutive monthly declines.
Shipments of durable goods grew 0.4% (7.1% y/y) in March to a record high $250 billion. Shipments of transportation products increased 1.8% (7.6% y/y) reflecting a 15.7% jump in civilian aircraft & parts (15.4% y/y). Machinery shipments fell 1.6% (+6.7% y/y) reversing February's gain. Computer & electronic product shipments declined 0.7% (+6.6% y/y).
Nondurable goods shipments, which equal nondurable goods orders because nondurables are shipped in the same period they are ordered, rose 0.5% (6.5% y/y) after a 0.3% decline in February. The increase in nondurables was the result of gains in the largest nondurable categories: food products (0.1% month-on-month; 3.3% y/y), basic chemicals (0.4% m/m; 4.4% y/y), and petroleum & coal shipments (1.5% m/m; 21.4% y/y).
Unfilled orders of durable goods, which as implied above equals unfilled factory orders, increased 0.8% (3.0% y/y). Transportation equipment backlogs rose 1.0% (2.3% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector, unfilled orders gained 0.3% (4.5% y/y). Non-transportation unfilled orders have been on the rise since the middle of 2016. Machinery backlogs edged down 0.1% (+3.8% y/y), the second consecutive monthly decline. The computer & electronic sector increased 0.2% (2.2% y/y) after two down months.
Inventories of manufactured products gained 0.3% (4.3% y/y) and have been on the rise since late 2016. Durable goods inventories--which are roughly 60% of total inventories--edged up 0.1% (4.5% y/y). Transportation fell 0.6% (+1.8% y/y). Inventories outside of transportation grew 0.5% (5.0% y/y). The machinery sector rose 0.5% (5.4% y/y). Computer & electronic product inventories picked up 0.3% (4.3% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories increased 0.5% (4.1% y/y). Basic chemical inventories, which have the largest nondurable inventories, edged up 0.2% (1.7% y/y). Meanwhile, food product inventories, the second largest category, rose 0.3% (0.7% y/y). Petroleum refinery inventories jumped 1.7% (19.7% y/y).
All these factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | 1.6 | 1.6 | -1.3 | 8.1 | 6.3 | -2.1 | -7.6 |
Shipments | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 6.8 | 5.5 | -2.0 | -5.8 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.8 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | -1.7 | -2.0 |
Inventories | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 0.8 | -0.1 |