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Economy in Brief
U.S. Productivity Weakness Revised Little; Unit Labor Costs Still Firm
Productivity growth in the nonfarm business sector last quarter was revised to -0.2% at an annual rate (+1.5%) y/y...
U.S. Gasoline and Nat Gas Prices Fall While Crude Oil Prices Were Mixed
In the week ended December 9, retail gasoline prices edged down to $2.56 per gallon (+5.8% y/y)...
NABE Projections for Moderate Growth and Inflation Are Little Revised
The National Association for Business Economics expectations of 1.8% growth in real GDP during 2020...
German Trade Data Tell a Tale of Two Germanys
Germany's October trade report is better than expected...
U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Growth Rebounds; Wages Firm & Jobless Rate Eases
The labor market firmed during November...
by Gerald D. Cohen May 3, 2018
Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged higher to 211,000 (-12.8% y/y) in the week ending April 28, from an unrevised 209,000 in the prior week. Claims had fallen sharply in the week ending April 21 and the Action Economics Forecast Survey expected them to rebound to 226,000. The four-week moving average declined to 221,500 from 229,250. This is the lowest four-week moving average of claims since March 1973. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the month-to-month change in nonfarm payroll employment.
In the week ending April 21, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 1.756 million (-11.3% y/y) from 1.833 million. The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1.833 million from 1.849 million. Both continuing claims and their four-week average are at their lowest level since December 1973
The insured rate of unemployment edged down to a new record low of 1.2%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ending April 14, the lowest rates of insured unemployed were Nebraska (0.46%), North Carolina (0.46%), Florida (0.47%), Indiana (0.55%), South Dakota (0.56%), and Tennessee (0.57%). The highest rates were in Illinois (1.94%), Pennsylvania (2.07%), California (2.32%), New Jersey (2.37%), Connecticut (2.45%), and Alaska (3.21%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 04/28/18 | 04/21/18 | 04/14/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 211 | 209 | 233 | -12.8 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,756 | 1,833 | -11.3 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.3 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |