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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 16, 2018
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo slipped to 69 during April from an unrevised 70 in March. It was the lowest figure since November. The reading compared to expectations for 70 in the Informa Global Markets Survey. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted. During the last ten years, there has been a 65% correlation between the y/y change in the home builders index and the y/y change in housing starts.
The index of present sales conditions in the housing market declined to 75, the lowest reading in six months. The index for conditions in the next six months fell to 77, the lowest level in three months.
Home builders reported that the traffic of prospective buyers index held steady at 51 (-1.0% y/y) but remained up sharply from the average of 12 in 2010.
Amongst the regional indexes, the index for the Midwest was stable m/m (-4.5% y/y) at the lowest level since September. The index for the South declined 2.7% (+2.9% y/y) to the lowest level since November. The reading for the West fell 1.3% (-1.3% y/y) and the index for the Northeast increased 1.9% (22.2% y/y).
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results six over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, .1358 for single-family detached sales, next months and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
National Association of Home Builders | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr '17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 69 | 70 | 71 | 68 | 68 | 61 | 59 |
Single-Family Sales: Present | 75 | 77 | 77 | 74 | 74 | 67 | 64 |
Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 77 | 78 | 80 | 75 | 76 | 67 | 66 |
Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 51 | 51 | 54 | 52 | 50 | 45 | 43 |