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Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 16, 2018
Total retail sales increased 0.6% (4.5% y/y) during March following an unrevised 0.1% slip in February. The gain was the first in four months. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales improved an expected 0.2% (4.5% y/y) following an unrevised 0.2% rise.
Sales of discretionary items were mixed last month. Sales of motor vehicles & parts increased 2.0% (4.5% y/y) following four consecutive months of decline. The rise compared to a 4.5% increase in unit auto sales reported earlier this month. Sales of nonstore retailers improved 0.8% (9.7% y/y) after a 0.9% gain. Sales at furniture & home furnishing stores rose 0.7% (3.9% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. Electronics appliance store sales rose 0.5% (1.0% y/y) following a 1.0% fall. General merchandise store sales improved 0.3% (3.2% y/y) following a 0.4% gain. Countering these increases was a 0.6% decline (+5.3% y/y) in building materials & garden equipment store sales after a 2.0% rise. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store purchases fell 1.8% (-3.3% y/y) following a 3.3% increase. Clothing & accessory store sales were off 0.8% (+1.8% y/y) following two months of improvement.
Gasoline service station sales eased 0.3% (+9.7 y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
Sales of nondiscretionary items strengthened last month. Health & personal care store sales increased 1.4% (0.8% y/y) after four straight months of decline. Food & beverage store sales improved 0.2% (3.0% y/y), the same as in February.
Food service & drinking establishment sales improved 0.4% (3.1% y/y) for the second straight month.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
Excluding Autos | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
Retail Sales | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | 2.0 | -1.3 | -0.9 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 7.3 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
Gasoline Stations | -0.3 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 9.7 | 8.9 | -5.7 | -17.6 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 8.1 |