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Economy in Brief
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016...
U.S. Housing Starts Rise Again in December
Housing starts increased 5.8% (5.2% y/y) during December to 1.669 million...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 11, 2018
Consumer prices eased 0.1% (+2.4% y/y) during March following a 0.2% February increase. It was the first decline in the CPI since May 2017. No change was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy posted an expected 0.2% increase for the second straight month. Strengthening, however, was the y/y increase to 2.1%, up from the 1.7% low in February.
A 0.3% increase in services prices pulled the y/y gain up to 2.9% from its 2.5% low in November. A 0.1% decline (+2.2% y/y) in recreation services prices held back the overall service price gain. Medical care services prices strengthened 0.5% (2.1% y/y) following a slight decline during February. Medical care services prices rose 0.5% (2.1% y/y) after little change in February. Shelter prices rose 0.4% (3.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The owners' equivalent rent of primary residences gained 0.3% (3.3% y/y). Transportation services costs improved 0.2% (4.3% y/y) following a 1.0% jump. The rise included a 0.3% gain (-2.1% y/y) in the cost of public transportation. Recreation services prices eased 0.1% (+2.2% y/y) after two months of 0.1% increase.
Prices for goods excluding food & energy eased 0.1% (-0.3% y/y) after a 0.1% rise. Apparel prices declined 0.6% (+0.3% y/y) following two months of roughly 1.6% increase. Household furnishings & supplies prices eased 0.1% (-1.5% y/y) after little change in February. Furniture & bedding prices fell 1.0% (-1.3% y/y) but appliance prices rose 1.2% (-2.2% y/y). New vehicle prices held steady (-1.2% y/y) after two months of decline. Medical care product prices improved 0.1% (1.4% y/y), also after two months of decline. Recreation goods prices surged 0.3% (-2.9% y/y), the largest increase since February 2011, as sporting goods prices jumped 1.3% (0.8% y/y). Education & communication product prices fell 0.4% (-2.5% y/y) after a 0.5% decline.
Energy product prices declined 2.8% (+7.0% y/y), reflecting a 4.9% fall (+11.1% y/y) in gasoline prices which followed a 0.9% rise. Fuel oil prices eased 0.7% (+20.0% y/y) after a 3.6% decline. Electricity prices held steady (+2.2% y/y) after a 0.4% rise, while natural gas prices declined 1.2% (+3.4% y/y) following a 4.7% surge.
Food prices improved 0.1% (1.3% y/y) after holding fairly steady. Egg prices surged 3.8% (16.3% y/y), the fifth month in six of strong gain. Seafood prices strengthened 1.0% (1.7% y/y) and meat prices increased 0.6% ( 1.4% y/y). Dairy product prices rose 0.3% (-0.9% y/y) and reversed February's rise. Cereal & bakery product prices rose 0.4% (0.1% y/y) after 0.1% dip. Countering these increases was a 0.7% decline (+0.3% y/y) in fruit & vegetable costs that added to February's 0.5% shortfall.
The consumer price data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting are available here.
Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (% chg) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
Goods less Food & Energy | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.3 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
Services less Energy | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
Food | 0.1 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
Energy | -2.8 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | -6.6 | -16.7 |