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Economy in Brief
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Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 26, 2018
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the March General Business Activity Index declined to 21.4, its lowest level since November. Production, new orders, shipments and employment each weakened. The workweek series ticked higher m/m and remained up sharply from the 2016 low.
Finished goods prices received declined to the lowest level in three months. The raw materials prices measure, however, improved to the strongest point since 2011. The cost of labor declined as wages & benefits eased to the lowest level in four months.
The index of expected business conditions in six months declined to the lowest level since August. Most of the sub-series fell m/m. The future employment index held steady but remained near the record high as did the measure of expected wages & benefits.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar'17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current General Business Activity Index | 21.4 | 37.2 | 33.4 | 16.9 | 20.4 | -8.8 | -12.5 |
Production | 12.7 | 27.9 | 16.8 | 18.6 | 19.5 | 2.4 | -1.0 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | 3.8 | 15.3 | 15.5 | 3.2 | 10.0 | -7.3 | -11.8 |
Number of Employees | 10.8 | 19.1 | 15.2 | 8.4 | 10.9 | -4.9 | -0.4 |
Wages & Benefits | 22.9 | 32.2 | 23.3 | 19.7 | 21.7 | 17.6 | 16.5 |
Prices Received for Finished Goods | 18.5 | 22.5 | 22.3 | 7.5 | 12.3 | -1.6 | -8.5 |
General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months | 32.0 | 40.6 | 44.5 | 36.3 | 35.1 | 8.9 | 4.1 |
Production | 45.7 | 46.0 | 51.6 | 36.3 | 46.6 | 35.8 | 31.1 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | 34.1 | 37.5 | 40.4 | 38.3 | 37.8 | 24.3 | 20.7 |
Number of Employees | 34.3 | 34.0 | 44.5 | 28.4 | 35.2 | 16.7 | 14.7 |
Wages & Benefits | 48.9 | 49.7 | 56.9 | 45.0 | 43.6 | 34.8 | 33.2 |