Recent Updates
- US: Import & Export Prices, IP & Capacity Utilization (Jan), Monthly GDP (Nov)
- US: Monthly GDP (Nov)
- Housing Market Statistics (Jan)
- *Israel CPI rebased to 2018=100*
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Jan)
- Canada: International Transactions in Securities (Dec)
- US: Empire State Mfg Survey (Feb)
- Kosovo: CPI (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Import Prices Continue Their Decline; Both Oil and Nonoil Prices Move Lower
Import prices fell a greater-than-expected 0.5% during January (-1.7% year-on-year)...
Empire State Manufacturing Activity Improves Modestly
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to 8.8 during February...
U.S. Retail Sales Exhibit Extensive Weakness
Total retail sales declined 1.2% (+2.3% y/y) during December...
U.S. Producer Prices Decline; Core PPI Rises
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index edged down 0.1% for the second consecutive month in January (+2.0% y/y)...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Edge Back Higher
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 239,000 in the week ended February 9...
by Tom Moeller March 23, 2018
New orders for durable goods increased 3.1% (8.9% y/y) during February following a 3.5% January decline, revised from -3.7%. Expectations had been for a 1.6% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Transportation sector orders continued to provide volatility to the overall orders figure. Last month's 7.1% increase (10.6% y/y) followed a 9.8% decline. Aircraft orders jumped 27.9% after a one-third January drop. Civilian aircraft orders rose 25.5%, and defense aircraft bookings gained 37.7%. Also adding volatility was a 1.6% rise (6.2% y/y) in motor vehicle orders which followed a 0.1% uptick.
Orders excluding the transportation sector increased 1.2% (8.1% y/y) after a 0.2% easing. Orders for primary metals increased 2.7% (12.0% y/y) after a 0.3% rise, and fabricated metals orders improved a steady 0.8% (12.9% y/y). Electrical equipment, appliance & component orders jumped 2.6% (1.1% y/y), after ticking 0.1% higher. Machinery orders strengthened 1.6% (9.6% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. A 0.2% slip (+6.5% y/y) in computer & electronic product orders was led by an 8.4% decline (-6.3% y/y) in communications equipment orders. Computer orders fell 1.1% (-11.7% y/y), the third decline in four months.
In the capital goods sector, orders increased 5.8% (13.0% y/y) after a 4.7% decline. Nondefense capital goods orders gained 4.5% (9.9% y/y) as orders excluding aircraft & parts improved 1.8% (8.0% y/y), after two months of slight decline. Defense aircraft orders strengthened by 16.5% (42.0% y/y), following a 26.4% shortfall.
Shipments of durable goods improved 0.9% (6.8% y/y), following two months of 0.5% rise. Excluding transportation, shipments rose 1.0% (7.4% y/y) after a 0.3% gain.
Unfilled orders for durable goods edged 0.2% (2.3% y/y) after a 0.3% drop. Backlogs of orders excluding transportation rose 0.2% (4.6% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
Inventories of durable goods gained 0.4% (4.5% y/y) for the second straight month. Inventories excluding the transportation sector increased 0.3% (5.6% y/y) and repeated January's rise.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | 3.1 | -3.5 | 2.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | -1.7 | -4.6 |
| Transportation | 7.1 | -9.8 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 4.9 | -3.4 | -6.2 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 1.2 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 8.1 | 6.5 | -0.7 | -3.6 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 4.5 | -1.1 | -0.3 | 9.9 | 7.8 | -7.1 | -11.0 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 1.8 | -0.4 | -0.5 | 8.0 | 5.3 | -4.6 | -4.3 |
| Shipments | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 4.3 | -1.6 | -0.6 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 | -1.7 | -2.0 |
| Inventories | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 1.6 |
