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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 23, 2018
New orders for durable goods increased 3.1% (8.9% y/y) during February following a 3.5% January decline, revised from -3.7%. Expectations had been for a 1.6% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Transportation sector orders continued to provide volatility to the overall orders figure. Last month's 7.1% increase (10.6% y/y) followed a 9.8% decline. Aircraft orders jumped 27.9% after a one-third January drop. Civilian aircraft orders rose 25.5%, and defense aircraft bookings gained 37.7%. Also adding volatility was a 1.6% rise (6.2% y/y) in motor vehicle orders which followed a 0.1% uptick.
Orders excluding the transportation sector increased 1.2% (8.1% y/y) after a 0.2% easing. Orders for primary metals increased 2.7% (12.0% y/y) after a 0.3% rise, and fabricated metals orders improved a steady 0.8% (12.9% y/y). Electrical equipment, appliance & component orders jumped 2.6% (1.1% y/y), after ticking 0.1% higher. Machinery orders strengthened 1.6% (9.6% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. A 0.2% slip (+6.5% y/y) in computer & electronic product orders was led by an 8.4% decline (-6.3% y/y) in communications equipment orders. Computer orders fell 1.1% (-11.7% y/y), the third decline in four months.
In the capital goods sector, orders increased 5.8% (13.0% y/y) after a 4.7% decline. Nondefense capital goods orders gained 4.5% (9.9% y/y) as orders excluding aircraft & parts improved 1.8% (8.0% y/y), after two months of slight decline. Defense aircraft orders strengthened by 16.5% (42.0% y/y), following a 26.4% shortfall.
Shipments of durable goods improved 0.9% (6.8% y/y), following two months of 0.5% rise. Excluding transportation, shipments rose 1.0% (7.4% y/y) after a 0.3% gain.
Unfilled orders for durable goods edged 0.2% (2.3% y/y) after a 0.3% drop. Backlogs of orders excluding transportation rose 0.2% (4.6% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
Inventories of durable goods gained 0.4% (4.5% y/y) for the second straight month. Inventories excluding the transportation sector increased 0.3% (5.6% y/y) and repeated January's rise.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | 3.1 | -3.5 | 2.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | -1.7 | -4.6 |
| Transportation | 7.1 | -9.8 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 4.9 | -3.4 | -6.2 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 1.2 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 8.1 | 6.5 | -0.7 | -3.6 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 4.5 | -1.1 | -0.3 | 9.9 | 7.8 | -7.1 | -11.0 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 1.8 | -0.4 | -0.5 | 8.0 | 5.3 | -4.6 | -4.3 |
| Shipments | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 4.3 | -1.6 | -0.6 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 | -1.7 | -2.0 |
| Inventories | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 1.6 |
