Recent Updates
- Euro area: PPI (Jan)
- Iraq: Public Internal Debt (Jan-Prelim)
- Italy: Final GDP (Q4)
- UK: International Reserves, Narrow Money (Feb)
- Capacity Utilization, Orders to Inventory Ratio (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue to Strengthen
The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.71 per gallon (11.9% y/y) in the week ended March 1...
Post Covid-19 Turbulence Rocks and Weakens German Retail Sales
German and other European retail sales have been put through a sort of test of fire in the wake of the covid-19 virus arrival...
ISM Manufacturing Index Improves in February as Prices Continue to Strengthen
Factory sector activity recovered last month following moderate weakening in January...
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 23, 2018
New orders for durable goods increased 3.1% (8.9% y/y) during February following a 3.5% January decline, revised from -3.7%. Expectations had been for a 1.6% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Transportation sector orders continued to provide volatility to the overall orders figure. Last month's 7.1% increase (10.6% y/y) followed a 9.8% decline. Aircraft orders jumped 27.9% after a one-third January drop. Civilian aircraft orders rose 25.5%, and defense aircraft bookings gained 37.7%. Also adding volatility was a 1.6% rise (6.2% y/y) in motor vehicle orders which followed a 0.1% uptick.
Orders excluding the transportation sector increased 1.2% (8.1% y/y) after a 0.2% easing. Orders for primary metals increased 2.7% (12.0% y/y) after a 0.3% rise, and fabricated metals orders improved a steady 0.8% (12.9% y/y). Electrical equipment, appliance & component orders jumped 2.6% (1.1% y/y), after ticking 0.1% higher. Machinery orders strengthened 1.6% (9.6% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. A 0.2% slip (+6.5% y/y) in computer & electronic product orders was led by an 8.4% decline (-6.3% y/y) in communications equipment orders. Computer orders fell 1.1% (-11.7% y/y), the third decline in four months.
In the capital goods sector, orders increased 5.8% (13.0% y/y) after a 4.7% decline. Nondefense capital goods orders gained 4.5% (9.9% y/y) as orders excluding aircraft & parts improved 1.8% (8.0% y/y), after two months of slight decline. Defense aircraft orders strengthened by 16.5% (42.0% y/y), following a 26.4% shortfall.
Shipments of durable goods improved 0.9% (6.8% y/y), following two months of 0.5% rise. Excluding transportation, shipments rose 1.0% (7.4% y/y) after a 0.3% gain.
Unfilled orders for durable goods edged 0.2% (2.3% y/y) after a 0.3% drop. Backlogs of orders excluding transportation rose 0.2% (4.6% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
Inventories of durable goods gained 0.4% (4.5% y/y) for the second straight month. Inventories excluding the transportation sector increased 0.3% (5.6% y/y) and repeated January's rise.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders (SA, % chg) | 3.1 | -3.5 | 2.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | -1.7 | -4.6 |
Transportation | 7.1 | -9.8 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 4.9 | -3.4 | -6.2 |
Total Excluding Transportation | 1.2 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 8.1 | 6.5 | -0.7 | -3.6 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 4.5 | -1.1 | -0.3 | 9.9 | 7.8 | -7.1 | -11.0 |
Excluding Aircraft | 1.8 | -0.4 | -0.5 | 8.0 | 5.3 | -4.6 | -4.3 |
Shipments | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 4.3 | -1.6 | -0.6 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 | -1.7 | -2.0 |
Inventories | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 1.6 |