Recent Updates
- US: Autodata Vehicle Sales (Feb)
- New Zealand: Regional Building Consents (Jan)
- New Zealand: Building Consents (Jan)
- Australia: Performance of Construction Index (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Post Covid-19 Turbulence Rocks and Weakens German Retail Sales
German and other European retail sales have been put through a sort of test of fire in the wake of the covid-19 virus arrival...
ISM Manufacturing Index Improves in February as Prices Continue to Strengthen
Factory sector activity recovered last month following moderate weakening in January...
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Manufacturing PMIs Are Strengthening More in the Developed World
PMIs largely are improving in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 21, 2018
The U.S. current account deficit rose to $128.2 billion during Q4 2017 from $101.5 billion in Q3. It was the largest deficit since Q4 2008. The Q4 deficit figure compared to $124.7 billion expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. As a percent of GDP, the deficit grew to 2.6%. During all of last year, the current account deficit deepened to $466.2 billion, the largest since 2008.
The larger deficit last quarter was due to a deeper $214.3 billion shortfall on goods trade. A 3.7% increase (8.1% y/y) in goods exports was exceeded by a 5.7% rise (8.7% y/y) in imports. During all of last year, goods exports rose 6.5%, the largest rise since 2011. Imports rose 7.0% last year, also the largest increase since 2011.
The surplus on services trade increased slightly to $60.4 billion, but that remained smaller than the Q1'15 peak of $67.1 billion. Services exports rose 1.2% (5.0% y/y) while services imports gained 1.5% (7.8% y/y). For all of 2017, services exports increased 3.8%, the most since 2014. Exports of intellectual property rights rose 2.8% but travel exports declined 1.1%, the first annual decline since 2009. Services imports gained 6.6% for all of 2017. Charges for intellectual property increased 8.9% after an 11.4% rise and travel imports rose 9.4%, the largest increase since 2012.
The surplus on primary income eased to $57.2 billion, but remained near its six-year high. During all of last year, the surplus rose to a record $217.0 billion. The deficit on secondary income increased to $31.5. During all of last year, the deficit eased to 114.8 billion.
From the capital account, the surplus on foreign direct investment shrank to $76.7 billion.
Balance of Payments data are in Haver's USINT database, with summaries available in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
US Balance of Payments SA | Q4'17 | Q3'17 | Q2'17 | Q4'16 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current Account Balance ($ Billion) | -128.2 | -101.5 | -125.7 | -114.0 | -466.2 | -451.7 | -434.6 |
Deficit % of GDP | -2.6 | -2.1 | -2.6 | -2.4 | -2.4 | -2.4 | -2.3 |
Balance on Goods ($ Billion) | -214.3 | -195.3 | -201.3 | -195.1 | -811.2 | -752.5 | -761.9 |
Exports | 3.7% | 1.3% | -0.2% | -0.1% | 6.5% | -3.6% | -7.5% |
Imports | 5.7% | -0.2% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 7.0% | -2.8% | -4.7% |
Balance on Services ($ Billion) | 60.4 | 60.0 | 59.8 | 61.0 | 242.8 | 247.7 | 261.4 |
Exports | 1.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 3.8% | -0.1% | 1.5% |
Imports | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% |
Balance on Primary Income ($ Billion) | 57.2 | 58.5 | 50.9 | 51.3 | 217.0 | 173.2 | 181.0 |
Balance on Secondary Income ($ Billion) | -31.5 | -24.7 | -33.2 | -31.3 | -114.8 | -120.1 | -115.1 |