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Economy in Brief
U.S. Leading Indicators Rebounded in March
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rebounded in March, rising 1.3% m/m (+7.9% y/y)...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Increases in March
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index increased to 1.71 during March...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Strengthens in April
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to a record 31 in April...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fall Again to a New Pandemic-Period Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased again in the week ending April 17, reaching 547,000...
U.K. CBI Optimism Speaks Volumes
The U.K. CBI survey saw its order component backtrack in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen March 16, 2018
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate jumped to 4.1% in January, matching the record rate reached in the middle of last year. The hiring rate rose to 3.8%. Over the last three years the hiring rate has been hovering between 3.6% and 3.8%. The layoff rate picked up to 1.2% in January but has been range-bound between 1.1% and 1.2% during the previous two years.
The private sector job openings rate jumped to 4.4% in January; a year ago it was 3.9%. Construction, manufacturing, trade, transportation & utilities, professional services and education & health all showed gains in openings. Leisure & hospitality was the only sector to show declines. The job openings rate in the government sector increased to 2.5% in January from 2.3% in December.
The level of job openings jumped 11.4% to a record 6.3 million in January driven by an 11.8% gain in private sector openings to a peak 5.8 million. Total economy job openings are up 15.9% from a year ago, while private sector openings have risen 15.7% year-on-year. Openings in construction led the gain, up 57.2% from a year ago, followed by trade and transportation (33.4% y/y) and leisure & hospitality (20.8%). Openings in government have grown 18.4% from a year ago.
The private sector hiring rate increased to 4.2% in January driven by gains in construction, manufacturing, education & health services and leisure & hospitality. Private sector hiring rose 1.4% for the month, with 2.7% growth for the year. The factory sector led the pack, up 16.9% from a year ago, while hiring in construction was down 14.9% year-on-year. Government hiring fell 3.4% in January and is down 3.7% year-on-year.
The overall job separations rate increased 1.8% (3.5% y/y) in January to a cycle peak of 5.4 million. The separation rate matched the cycle high of 3.7% notched six months ago. Total layoffs rose 6.5% and are up 6.2% from a year ago. Private sector layoffs jumped 8.1% for the month and are up 6.8% from a year ago.
The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) survey dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan '17 | Jan '16 | Jan '15 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | |||||||
Rate (%) | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.5 | |
Total (000s) | 6,312 | 5,667 | 5,933 | 5,444 | 5,729 | 5,113 | |
Hires, Total | |||||||
Rate (%) | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 | |
Total (000s) | 5,583 | 5,524 | 5,514 | 5,460 | 5,130 | 5,036 | |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | |||||||
Rate (%) | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | |
Total (000s) | 1,762 | 1,655 | 1,735 | 1,659 | 1,722 | 1,723 |