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Economy in Brief
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Edge Up
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index edged up 0.5% w/w (5.4% y/y) in the week ended February 26...
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Weaken in February
Sales of light vehicles declined 5.6% during February (-6.7% y/y) to 15.88 million units...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue to Strengthen
The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.71 per gallon (11.9% y/y) in the week ended March 1...
Post Covid-19 Turbulence Rocks and Weakens German Retail Sales
German and other European retail sales have been put through a sort of test of fire in the wake of the covid-19 virus arrival...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 15, 2018
Initial claims for unemployment insurance claims fell to 226,000 during the week ended March 10 from 230,000 in the prior week, revised from 231,000. Claims remain near the lowest level since December 1969. Expectations had been for 227,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average eased to 221,500. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls
In the week ended March 3, continuing claims for unemployment insurance were little changed at 1.879 million (-6.9% y/y). The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1.891 million, the lowest level since January 1974.
The insured rate of unemployment held at the record low of 1.3%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended February 24, the lowest rates of unemployment were found in Florida (0.48%), North Carolina (0.53%), Georgia (0.67%), Tennessee (0.69%), Virginia (0.72%) and Indiana (0.79%. The highest rates were in Massachusetts (2.72%), Montana (2.86%), Rhode Island (2.90%), New Jersey (2.97%), Connecticut (2.99%) and Alaska (3.64%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 03/10/18 | 03/03/18 | 02/24/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 226 | 230 | 210 | -7.9 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,879 | 1,875 | -6.9 | 1,962 | 2,135 | 2,266 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.3 | 1.3 |
1.5 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |