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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 14, 2018
Total business inventories increased 0.6% (3.7% y/y) during January, the same as in December, revised from 0.4%. Total business sales fell 0.2% (+5.7% y/y), the first decline since last March. The changes in inventories and sales caused the inventory-to-sales ratio to rise modestly to 1.34. That remained, however, well below its 1.42 peak early in 2016.
Retail inventories increased 0.7% (2.3% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. Auto inventories rose 1.7% (2.2% y/y) following four straight months of decline. Nonauto retail inventories notched 0.1% higher (2.4% y/y) after three months of firm accumulation. Grocery store inventories increased 0.2% (4.4% y/y) after surging in the prior two months. Building materials inventories rose 0.5% (3.8% y/y) after a -0.7% rise. Clothing store inventories gained 0.3% (-0.8% y/y), only the second m/m increase since last March. General merchandise inventories rose 0.7% (-0.3% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Furniture store inventories declined 0.5% (+2.1% y/y), the third decline in four months. As reported last week, wholesale inventories increased 0.8% (4.8% y/y) in January following a 0.7% rise. Also reported earlier, factory sector inventories rose 0.3% (4.0% y/y), matching the weakest rise since May.
Retail sales slipped 0.1% (+4.1% y/y) following a 0.2% decline, while nonauto sales improved 0.1% (+4.7% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Wholesale sector sales declined 1.1% (+6.7% y/y) after a 0.8% rise, as shipments from the factory sector increased a steady 0.6% (6.1% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector rose to 1.44, the highest level in four months, but down sharply from the 1.49 August high. The nonauto I/S ratio held steady at 1.21 and remained near its lowest level since early-2012. The wholesale sector I/S ratio rose to 1.26, its highest point since September. In the manufacturing sector, the I/S ratio held steady at 1.35, its lowest point in three years.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
Retail | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 4.7 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 3.8 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
Manufacturing | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.8 | -0.1 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | -0.2 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 5.7 | 6.1 | -0.1 | -3.2 |
Retail | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.1 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
Merchant Wholesalers | -1.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 6.7 | 8.1 | -0.6 | -4.9 |
Manufacturing | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 6.1 | 5.5 | -2.0 | -5.8 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.40 | 1.38 |
Retail | 1.44 | 1.43 | 1.42 | 1.46 | 1.46 | 1.48 | 1.45 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.27 | 1.26 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.26 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.33 | 1.32 |
Manufacturing | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.41 | 1.39 |