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Economy in Brief
U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Dips in May After Seven Straight Monthly Rises
The value of construction put-in-place ticked down 0.1% m/m (+9.7% y/y) in May...
Developed Economies Manufacturing Sectors Hit Hard in June
Among the 18 countries in the table that report manufacturing PMI data in June, only four show m/m improvements...
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
Personal income growth remained solid while household spending slowed in May...
U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level since Aug. '20
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell to 56.0...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 25 declined by 2,000 to 231,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 8, 2018
Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 231,000 (-7.2% y/y) during the week ended March 3. Claims during the prior week were unrevised at 210,000, the lowest level since December 1969. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had been for 219,000 claims. The four-week moving average nudged higher to 222,500. During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls
In the week ended February 24, continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.870 million (-9.0% y/y) from 1.934 million. The four-week moving average of claimants eased to 1.907 million, the lowest level since January 1974.
The insured rate of unemployment returned to the record low of 1.3%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended February 17, the lowest rates of unemployment were found in Florida (0.51%), North Carolina (0.56%), Georgia (0.69%), Virginia (0.72%), Tennessee (0.76%) and Indiana (0.81%. The highest rates were in Massachusetts (2.56%), Rhode Island (2.66%), Montana (2.83%), New Jersey (2.89%), Connecticut (2.93%) and Alaska (3.95%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 03/03/18 | 02/24/18 | 02/17/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 231 | 210 | 220 | -7.2 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,870 | 1,934 | -9.0 | 1,962 | 2,135 | 2,266 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.3 | 1.4 |
1.5 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |