Recent Updates
- US: Construction (May+revisions)
- Macao: Gross Revenue from Game of Chance (Jun)
- Manufacturing PMIs: Australia, Ireland, Japan, China, Taiwan, Myanmar, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, ASEAN, India, Russia, Kazakhstan, Poland, Netherlands,
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Dips in May After Seven Straight Monthly Rises
The value of construction put-in-place ticked down 0.1% m/m (+9.7% y/y) in May...
Developed Economies Manufacturing Sectors Hit Hard in June
Among the 18 countries in the table that report manufacturing PMI data in June, only four show m/m improvements...
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
Personal income growth remained solid while household spending slowed in May...
U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level since Aug. '20
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell to 56.0...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 25 declined by 2,000 to 231,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen February 28, 2018
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales fell 4.7% (-3.8% y/y) in January to an index level of 104.6 (2001=100). This is the lowest level since October 2014 and is down 7.5% from its current-cycle peak in April 2016. However, over the last year pending home sales have been bouncing between roughly 110 and 105. The National Association of Realtors noted that January's weakness was hampered by "woefully low supply levels and the sudden increase in mortgage rates".
Pending sales were down in all regions led by a 9.0% (-12.1% y/y) drop in the Northeast. Sales in the Midwest fell 6.6% (-4.1% y/y), while sales in the South and West were down 3.9% (-1.1% y/y) and 1.2% (-2.5% y/y) respectively. Sales in the Northeast and Midwest hit multiyear lows, suggesting weather affects. January's U.S. population weighted heating degree days was at its highest level since January 2014.
The pending home sales index measures home sales when the sales contract is signed, analogous to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity parallels the level of closed existing home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database. United States Population Weighted Heating and Cooling Degree Days dates back to 1949 and can be found in the USECON database.
Pending Home Sales (SA, 2001=100) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 104.6 | 109.8 | 109.8 | -3.8 | 108.9 | 110.2 | 108.9 |
Northeast | 87.0 | 95.6 | 98.5 | -12.1 | 97.1 | 96.4 | 90.5 |
Midwest | 98.2 | 105.1 | 105.5 | -4.1 | 104.7 | 107.9 | 107.2 |
South | 121.9 | 126.8 | 124.9 | -1.1 | 123.6 | 123.3 | 123.1 |
West | 97.9 | 99.1 | 99.3 | -2.5 | 99.4 | 102.7 | 102.5 |