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Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
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The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
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The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 26, 2018
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the February General Business Activity Index improved to 37.2, its highest level since December 2005. Strength in production, shipments and employment led the improvement in the overall index. The workweek series ticked higher m/m and remained up sharply from the 2016 low.
Finished goods prices received held at the highest level since early-2011 following the improvement since 2015. The raw materials prices measure also strengthened versus the 2015 low. The cost of labor also increased as wages & benefits strengthened to the highest level since October 2006.
The index of expected business conditions in six months eased m/m, but remained near the 2004 high. Most of the sub-series slipped m/m but remained stable y/y. Expected wages & benefits continued to strengthen versus last year. The future employment index backed away from its record high as did the measure of expected wages & benefits.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb'17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current General Business Activity Index | 37.2 | 33.4 | 29.7 | 24.5 | 20.4 | -8.8 | -12.5 |
Production | 27.9 | 16.8 | 32.8 | 16.7 | 19.5 | 2.4 | -1.0 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | 15.3 | 15.5 | 21.4 | 2.0 | 10.0 | -7.3 | -11.8 |
Number of Employees | 19.1 | 15.2 | 20.4 | 9.6 | 10.9 | -4.9 | -0.4 |
Wages & Benefits | 32.2 | 23.3 | 25.1 | 19.5 | 21.7 | 17.6 | 16.5 |
Prices Received for Finished Goods | 22.5 | 22.3 | 17.9 | 19.5 | 12.3 | -1.6 | -8.5 |
General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months | 40.6 | 44.5 | 40.9 | 37.0 | 35.1 | 8.9 | 4.1 |
Production | 46.0 | 51.6 | 47.4 | 46.4 | 46.6 | 35.8 | 31.1 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | 37.5 | 40.4 | 40.1 | 39.9 | 37.8 | 24.3 | 20.7 |
Number of Employees | 34.0 | 44.5 | 36.6 | 33.9 | 35.2 | 16.7 | 14.7 |
Wages & Benefits | 49.7 | 56.9 | 44.2 | 45.0 | 43.6 | 34.8 | 33.2 |