Recent Updates
- Slovenia: International Reserves (Feb)
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- Armenia: IP, Retail Trade, Wages, Trade by Country, Trade Prices, Employment (Jan)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 22, 2018
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators strengthened 1.0% during January. That raised the y/y change to 6.2%, its strongest since October 2014. The latest increase followed an unrevised 0.6% December gain. A 0.6% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Most of the component series in the leading index rose. The ISM new orders index, building permits, stock prices and the leading credit index added equally to the overall increase, while the interest rate spread between 10-Year Treasuries & Fed funds, and consumer expectations for business/economic conditions added just slightly. Fewer initial unemployment insurance claims and more nondefense capital goods orders added minimally. The average workweek and orders for consumer goods held steady.
The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators inched 0.1% higher last month (2.2% y/y), following an unrevised 0.3% December rise. Personal income less transfer payments, business sales and payroll employment contributed positively to the index. Industrial production exhibited a minimal negative influence. Three-month growth in the index eased to 2.4% (AR), but still was improved versus 1.3% in 2015.
The Index of Lagging Economic Indicators gained 0.1% (2.5% y/y) last month after an unrevised 0.7% rise. The services CPI, the consumer credit/personal income ratio, and the prime rate charged by banks had positive effects on the index, while the average duration of unemployment and C&I loans outstanding contributed negatively. Three-month growth in the lagging index remained strong at 3.5%, up from 2.6% last year.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators is often considered to be a leading indicator of economic activity. As economic slack diminishes relative to current performance, the ratio will rise. It held steady last month near the 1975 low.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
The U.S. Economy after the Global Financial Crisis from Fed Vice Chairman Randal K. Quarles can be found here.
Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leading | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
Coincident | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
Lagging | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.7 |