Recent Updates
- Japan: National Market Trends for Condominiums (Dec)
- Australia: International Trade by State (Dec-Prelim)
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (Jan)
- Lebanon: Port of Beirut Statistics (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016...
U.S. Housing Starts Rise Again in December
Housing starts increased 5.8% (5.2% y/y) during December to 1.669 million...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 22, 2018
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 222,000 (-10.9% y/y) during the week ended February 17 from 229,000 in the prior week, revised from 230,000. Expectations had been for 230,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average eased to 226,000, the lowest level since early-1973.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey week for February nonfarm payrolls. There was a 6,000 increase (2.8%) versus the January period. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ended February 10, continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined to 1.875 million (-9.2% y/y) from 1.948 million. The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1.927 million.
The insured rate of unemployment slipped to 1.3%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended February 3, the lowest rates were in Florida (0.54%), North Carolina (0.58%), Georgia (0.73%), Virginia (0.75%), Tennessee (0.78%) and Indiana (0.81%). Near the high end were Connecticut (3.02%), New Jersey (3.00%), Montana (2.82%), Rhode Island (2.72%), Pennsylvania (2.73%) and California (2.44%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 02/17/18 | 02/10/18 | 02/03/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 222 | 229 | 223 | -10.9 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,875 | 1,948 | -9.2 | 1,962 | 2,135 | 2,266 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.3 | 1.4 |
1.5 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |