Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 15, 2018
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo remained unchanged (+10.8% y/y) at 72 during February. The reading matched expectations in the Informa Global Markets Survey. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted. During the last ten years, there has been a 65% correlation between the y/y change in the home builders index and the y/y change in housing starts.
The index of present sales conditions in the housing market eased 1.3% (+9.9% y/y) to 78, down for the second straight month. The index for conditions in the next six months rose 2.6% (9.6% y/y) to 80, the highest level since June 2005.
Home builders reported that the traffic of prospective buyers index held steady at 54 (+17.4% y/y), up sharply from 12 averaged in 2010.
Amongst the regional indexes, the index for the Midwest gained 1.4% (9.4% y/y) while the index for the South held steady (+14.1% y/y). The index for the Northeast declined 6.7% (+43.6% y/y) and the reading for the West fell 7.2% (+1.3% y/y).
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results six over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, .1358 for single-family detached sales, next months and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
National Association of Home Builders | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb '17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 72 | 72 | 74 | 65 | 68 | 61 | 59 |
Single-Family Sales: Present | 78 | 79 | 80 | 71 | 74 | 67 | 64 |
Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 80 | 78 | 79 | 73 | 76 | 67 | 66 |
Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 54 | 54 | 58 | 46 | 50 | 45 | 43 |