Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 14, 2018
Many consumers stayed home last month. Total retail sales declined 0.3% during January following no change in December, revised from 0.4% reported initially. November's 0.8% gain was revised from 0.9%. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales were flat (+4.2% y/y) following a 0.1% rise, revised from 0.4%. It was the weakest monthly change since June. A 0.5% increase had been expected.
Sales of most discretionary items moderated last month. A 1.3% decline (+1.5% y/y) in sales of motor vehicles & parts was the third consecutive monthly shortfall. It compared to a 3.9% decline in unit auto sales reported earlier this month. Purchases of building materials fell 2.4% (+3.6% y/y) after a 0.7% rise. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales weakened 0.8% (-7.1% y/y), off for the third straight month. Sales of nonstore retailers held steady (10.2% y/y) after a 0.5% increase. Furniture & home furnishing store sales also were stable (3.3% y/y) after a 1.5% decline. Rising a modest 0.2% (3.0% y/y) were general merchandise store sales following a 0.3% gain. Showing more improvement were sales at electronics & appliance stores with a 0.5% increase (1.6% y/y), the fifth consecutive month of strength. Clothing & accessory store sales rebounded 1.2% (1.9% y/y) after a 1.2% drop. Gasoline station sales rose 1.6% (9.0% y/y) with higher prices, following a 0.3% gain.
Sales of nondiscretionary items softened last month. Health & personal care store sales fell 1.2% (+0.5% y/y), the third straight monthly shortfall. Food & beverage store sales eased slightly (+3.6% y/y) following a 0.4% rise.
Food service & drinking establishment sales held steady (2.1 y/y) after a 0.9% rise. This performance followed three months of firm gains.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
Excluding Autos | -0.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
Non-Auto Less Gasoline | -0.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
Retail Sales | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | -1.3 | -0.1 | -1.0 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 7.3 |
Retail Less Autos | -0.0 | -0.1 | 1.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
Gasoline Stations | 1.6 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 9.0 | 8.9 | -5.7 | -17.6 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 8.1 |