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Economy in Brief
Import Prices Continue Their Decline; Both Oil and Nonoil Prices Move Lower
Import prices fell a greater-than-expected 0.5% during January (-1.7% year-on-year)...
Empire State Manufacturing Activity Improves Modestly
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to 8.8 during February...
EMU-16 Trade Flows and Balance
EMU-wide exports ticked lower in December as imports were flat...
U.S. Retail Sales Exhibit Extensive Weakness
Total retail sales declined 1.2% (+2.3% y/y) during December...
U.S. Producer Prices Decline; Core PPI Rises
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index edged down 0.1% for the second consecutive month in January (+2.0% y/y)...
by Carol Stone, CBE February 1, 2018
Initial unemployment insurance applications edged down to 230,000 (-8.0% y/y) during the week ended January 27 from 231,000 claims in the prior week, revised from 233,000. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had been for a modest increase to 235,000 claims. The four-week moving average fell to 234,500. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ended January 20, continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased to 1.953 million (-5.3% y/y) from 1.940 million. The four-week moving average of claimants rose to 1.933 million.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 1.4%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended January 13, the lowest rates were in several southern states: Florida (0.52%), North Carolina (0.54%), Georgia (0.75%), and Tennessee (0.76%); Indiana was fifth lowest (0.77%). Alaska was again the high (4.02%); next were New Jersey (2.95%), Montana (2.77%), Connecticut (2.70%) and Pennsylvania (2.61%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 01/27/18 | 01/20/18 | 01/13/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 230 | 231 | 216 | -8.0 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,953 | 1 ,940 | -5.3 | 1,962 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.4 | 1.4 |
1.5 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |