Recent Updates
- Japan: First 20 Days Trade, Bank of Japan's Transactions (Feb)
- India: Mutual Funds (Feb)
- New Zealand: Value of Building Work Put in Place by Region (Q4)
- New Zealand: Value of Building Work Put in Place (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 31, 2018
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer for January fell to 65.7 and reversed virtually all of its December gain. A decline to 64.3 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Purchasing Managers figures are diffusion indexes where readings above 50 indicate growth. Figures for the last two years were revised.
Based on these figures, Haver Analytics constructs an index that is comparable to the ISM Composite index. The figure increased slightly to 65.9 from 65.6. It was the highest figure since July 1988. During the last ten years, there has been a 63% correlation between the index and the q/q change in real GDP.
The month-to-month fall in the total index reflected declines in production, new & unfilled orders and inventories. Working higher were the supplier delivery and employment measures.The jobs index rose to the highest level since March 2012. During the last ten years, there has been an 80% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid measure increased to 72.1, the highest level since September. Forty-eight percent of respondents reported paying higher prices while six percent paid less.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database, with detail, including the ISM-style index, in the SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan '17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Business Barometer | 65.7 | 67.8 | 65.6 | 51.2 | 60.8 | 53.1 | 50.3 |
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 65.9 | 65.6 | 64.3 | 50.5 | 59.0 | 52.0 | 51.6 |
Production | 73.4 | 76.9 | 70.3 | 56.7 | 64.3 | 54.7 | 52.5 |
New Orders | 66.4 | 72.2 | 67.9 | 56.9 | 63.5 | 55.7 | 50.4 |
Order Backlogs | 55.1 | 59.6 | 58.2 | 46.0 | 55.2 | 47.2 | 44.4 |
Inventories | 63.5 | 63.9 | 59.1 | 44.2 | 54.9 | 47.2 | 52.1 |
Employment | 60.7 | 55.3 | 56.4 | 47.5 | 52.9 | 49.4 | 50.3 |
Supplier Deliveries | 65.3 | 59.6 | 68.0 | 55.4 | 59.4 | 52.8 | 52.5 |
Prices Paid | 72.1 | 67.2 | 68.9 | 61.2 | 64.0 | 53.2 | 46.8 |