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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 29, 2018
Business in Texas is strengthening. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the January General Business Activity Index increased to 33.4, its highest level in more than 12 years, suggesting firm growth in the factory sector. The shipments and the inventories measures both strengthened. The production and new orders indexes declined, but remained firm versus 2017. The jobs index eased, but remained up sharply y/y. The workweek series displayed similar behavior.
Finished goods prices received surged to the highest level since early-2011 and the raw material prices measure remained firm. Both remained up sharply versus earlier lows. The wages & benefits measure eased m/m but also strengthened y/y.
The index of expected business conditions in six months improved to the highest level since December 2004. Expected production was strong as were expected orders and shipments. The future employment index jumped to a record high. The measure of expected wages & benefits also increased to a record high.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current General Business Activity Index | 33.4 | 29.7 | 19.4 | 22.1 | 20.4 | -8.8 | -12.5 |
Production | 16.8 | 32.8 | 15.1 | 11.9 | 19.5 | 2.4 | -1.0 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | 15.5 | 21.4 | 18.1 | 6.7 | 10.0 | -7.3 | -11.8 |
Number of Employees | 15.2 | 20.4 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 10.9 | -4.9 | -0.4 |
Wages & Benefits | 23.3 | 25.1 | 14.2 | 20.8 | 21.7 | 17.6 | 16.5 |
Prices Received for Finished Goods | 22.3 | 17.9 | 15.1 | 17.7 | 12.3 | -1.6 | -8.5 |
General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months | 44.5 | 40.9 | 39.0 | 43.7 | 35.1 | 8.9 | 4.1 |
Production | 51.6 | 47.4 | 46.1 | 53.9 | 46.6 | 35.8 | 31.1 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | 40.4 | 40.1 | 40.9 | 48.4 | 37.8 | 24.3 | 20.7 |
Number of Employees | 44.5 | 36.6 | 29.8 | 37.7 | 35.2 | 16.7 | 14.7 |
Wages & Benefits | 56.9 | 44.2 | 46.6 | 42.5 | 43.6 | 34.8 | 33.2 |