Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Feb-final), Chicago PMI (Feb),Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Jan)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Feb-final)
- Canada: Industrial Product Prices (Jan)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Jan)
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Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 17, 2018
The Federal Reserve indicated that industrial production increased 0.9% (3.6% y/y) during December following a 0.1% dip in November, revised from +0.2%. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Last month's increase reflected a 5.6% jump in utility output which was boosted by cold temperatures. Factory sector production gained 0.1% (2.3% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. Mining output surged 1.6% (11.5% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
The rise in factory sector output reflected a 1.0% increase (1.5% y/y) in consumer goods production, bolstered by a 2.0% strengthening (0.4% y/y) in motor vehicle & parts output. Apparel production gained 0.4% (-8.7% y/y) and paper output rose 0.3% (-1.1% y/y). To the downside, electrical equipment & appliance output fell 0.7% (+3.1% y/y). Business equipment production improved 0.2% (4.2% y/y). Machinery production increased 0.5% (8.3% y/y) but computer & electronic component production eased 0.1% (+2.4% y/y). Chemical production fell 0.7% (+3.2% y/y) and petroleum & related product output was off 0.7% (+2.0% y/y).
Production of materials jumped 1.1% (5.2% y/y) as energy materials production surged 2.7% (8.0% y/y). Durable goods materials improved 0.1% (3.5% y/y) and nondurable goods materials also rose 0.1% (3.0% y/y).
In the special aggregate groupings, production in selected high-technology industries rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y). Nonenergy production excluding high-tech gained 0.2% (2.4% y/y). Factory sector production excluding both high-tech and autos was unchanged (2.5% y/y).
Capacity utilization increased to 77.9%, the highest level since February 2015. Factory sector capacity utilization held steady m/m at 76.4%. Electric & gas utility utilization surged to 80.4%.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Output | 0.9 | -0.1 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -0.7 |
Manufacturing | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | -0.0 | 0.1 |
Consumer Goods | 1.0 | -0.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 2.3 |
Business Equipment | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 2.6 | -1.8 | -0.9 |
Construction Supplies | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
Materials | 1.1 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | -2.3 | -1.4 |
Utilities | 5.6 | -3.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
Mining | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 11.5 | 6.6 | -9.1 | -4.3 |
Capacity Utilization (%) | 77.9 | 77.2 | 77.4 | 76.0 | 76.5 | 75.7 | 76.8 |
Manufacturing | 76.4 | 76.4 | 76.3 | 75.2 | 75.7 | 75.1 | 75.5 |