Recent Updates
- Bangladesh: BOP (Nov), Stock Exchange Indicators (Jan)
- Philippines: CPI (Feb)
- Thailand: International Trade by Region (Jan)
- Japan: First 20 Days Trade, Bank of Japan's Transactions (Feb)
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- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 12, 2018
Total business inventories increased 0.4% in November (3.2% y/y) following no change during the prior two months. Total business sales jumped 1.2% (7.9% y/y), the fourth consecutive month of strong gains. The moderate rise in inventories coupled with sales strength lowered the inventory/sales ratio to 1.33, down sharply from its 1.42 high in April 2016.
Retail inventories ticked 0.1% higher (1.9% y/y) following no change in October. Auto inventories were unchanged (2.2% y/y) following two months of decline. Nonauto retail inventories improved 0.2% (1.7% y/y) after a 0.4% gain. Grocery store inventories increased 0.8% (3.5% y/y) and building materials inventories rose 0.1% (2.7% y/y). Clothing store inventories declined 0.4% (-1.9% y/y) while general merchandise inventories slipped 0.1% (-1.1% y/y). Furniture store inventories dropped 0.5% (+0.9% y/y) following a 0.7% fall. As reported earlier this week, wholesale inventories increased 0.8% in November (4.0% y/y) following a 0.4% decline. Also reported earlier, factory sector inventories increased 0.4% (3.7% y/y) after a 0.3% rise.
Overall business sales surged 1.2% due to strength across business sectors. As reported last month, November retail sales gained 0.9% (6.6% y/y) while nonauto sales jumped 1.5% (6.9% y/y). Wholesale sector sales also strengthened 1.5% (9.8% y/y) as shipments from the factory sector surged 1.2%, strong for the fourth straight month.
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector eased to 1.42. Sharp declines in recent months left the ratio at its lowest point since September 2014. The nonauto I/S ratio also declined to 1.20, its lowest level since early 2012. The wholesale sector I/S ratio eased to 1.24, the lowest point in three years. In the manufacturing sector, the I/S ratio slipped to 1.35, also its lowest point in three years.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.4 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 3.4 |
Retail | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.0 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.8 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.8 |
Manufacturing | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 1.6 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 7.9 | -0.1 | -3.2 | 2.8 |
Retail | 0.9 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 4.0 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 3.3 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 9.8 | -0.5 | -4.9 | 3.6 |
Manufacturing | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 7.3 | -2.0 | -5.8 | 1.3 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.36 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.31 |
Retail | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.44 | 1.48 | 1.48 | 1.45 | 1.43 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.26 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.23 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.24 | 1.25 | 1.26 | 1.31 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.21 |
Manufacturing | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.41 | 1.39 | 1.31 |