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Economy in Brief
U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government budget deficit for February of $234.0 billion...
Wholesale Inventories and Sales Rise
Wholesale inventories increased 1.2% m/m (7.7% y/y) during January...
EMU PMIs Take Grim Turn for the Worse
Manufacturing has continued to plunge while the services metric has stabilized in the past several months by drifting mostly sideways...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rebound
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.2% (3.0% y/y) during February...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds but Prices Weaken
The Philadelphia Fed reported in its Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey that the General Business Conditions Index rebounded this month to 13.7...
by Tom Moeller January 11, 2018
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $23.2 billion budget deficit during December 2017 compared to a $27.3 billion deficit in December 2016. A deficit of $50.2 billion had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Net revenues rose 3.9% y/y in the first three months of FY'18. Individual income taxes increased 10.8% y/y following a 2.7% rise during all of last year. The gain in social insurance receipts eased to 2.7% y/y and excise taxes improved 0.4% y/y following last year's 11.8% shortfall. The rate of decline in corporate income taxes picked up to -18.1% y/y after falling 0.8% during all of last fiscal year.
Government spending increased 4.6% y/y so far in FY'18 compared to 3.3% growth during all of FY'17. National defense spending rose 5.9% y/y after slight increases during the last two fiscal years. Health insurance spending eased 0.5% y/y following two years of single-digit growth, while Medicare outlays were little changed y/y. Income security payments were fairly stable y/y after their 2.1% FY'17 decline. Social Security payments increased a steady 3.4% y/y. Interest payments rose 15.6% y/y after 9.2% growth last year.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Dec 2017 | FY'17 | FY'16 | FY'15 | FY'14 | FY'13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-23.2 | $-665.7 | $-585.6 | $-439.1 | $-483.4 | $-680.2 |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% |
| % of Total | |||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2018, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 10.8 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 16.3 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 9 | -18.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 | 17.3 | 12.9 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 34 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 12.1 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 0.4 | -11.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 6.3 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year 2017 YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 1.4 | -2.4 |
| National Defense | 15 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -6.3 |
| Health | 15 | -0.5 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 17.8 | 14.3 | 3.3 |
| Medicare | 15 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 5.5 |
| Income Security | 13 | -0.1 | -2.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 11.5 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 11.1 | 31.6 | -10.2 | 34.7 | 25.9 | -21.9 |
| Interest | 7 | 15.6 | 9.2 | 7.8 | -1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 |
