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Economy in Brief
U.S. Current Account Deficit Declines
The U.S. current account deficit fell to $101.5 billion
during Q2 2018 from $121.7 billion in Q1...
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The Composite Housing Market Index from the National
Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo remained unchanged during September at 67...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Drift Sideways
Canadian Factory Sector Looks Solid
Canadian factory orders fell for the second month in a row in July but because of an order surge back in May...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Eases; Prices Improve
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business
Conditions declined to 19.0 during September from 25.6 in August
Special Topics
by Tom Moeller January 11, 2018
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $23.2 billion budget deficit during December 2017 compared to a $27.3 billion deficit in December 2016. A deficit of $50.2 billion had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Net revenues rose 3.9% y/y in the first three months of FY'18. Individual income taxes increased 10.8% y/y following a 2.7% rise during all of last year. The gain in social insurance receipts eased to 2.7% y/y and excise taxes improved 0.4% y/y following last year's 11.8% shortfall. The rate of decline in corporate income taxes picked up to -18.1% y/y after falling 0.8% during all of last fiscal year.
Government spending increased 4.6% y/y so far in FY'18 compared to 3.3% growth during all of FY'17. National defense spending rose 5.9% y/y after slight increases during the last two fiscal years. Health insurance spending eased 0.5% y/y following two years of single-digit growth, while Medicare outlays were little changed y/y. Income security payments were fairly stable y/y after their 2.1% FY'17 decline. Social Security payments increased a steady 3.4% y/y. Interest payments rose 15.6% y/y after 9.2% growth last year.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Dec 2017 | FY'17 | FY'16 | FY'15 | FY'14 | FY'13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-23.2 | $-665.7 | $-585.6 | $-439.1 | $-483.4 | $-680.2 |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% |
| % of Total | |||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2018, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 10.8 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 16.3 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 9 | -18.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 | 17.3 | 12.9 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 34 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 12.1 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 0.4 | -11.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 6.3 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year 2017 YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 1.4 | -2.4 |
| National Defense | 15 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -6.3 |
| Health | 15 | -0.5 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 17.8 | 14.3 | 3.3 |
| Medicare | 15 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 5.5 |
| Income Security | 13 | -0.1 | -2.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 11.5 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 11.1 | 31.6 | -10.2 | 34.7 | 25.9 | -21.9 |
| Interest | 7 | 15.6 | 9.2 | 7.8 | -1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 |
