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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Treasury Statement, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Slumps Again in January
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions at the company level slumped further to -0.2 in January...
ZEW Assessments Almost Universally Fall
The ZEW indexes each month center on Germany where the survey occurs and where the financial experts reside...
U.S. Industrial Production Celebrates 100 Years With An Increase
In the 100th anniversary of it release, industrial production rose a greater-than-expected 0.3% (3.9% year-on-year) during December...
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
by Tom Moeller January 11, 2018
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $23.2 billion budget deficit during December 2017 compared to a $27.3 billion deficit in December 2016. A deficit of $50.2 billion had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Net revenues rose 3.9% y/y in the first three months of FY'18. Individual income taxes increased 10.8% y/y following a 2.7% rise during all of last year. The gain in social insurance receipts eased to 2.7% y/y and excise taxes improved 0.4% y/y following last year's 11.8% shortfall. The rate of decline in corporate income taxes picked up to -18.1% y/y after falling 0.8% during all of last fiscal year.
Government spending increased 4.6% y/y so far in FY'18 compared to 3.3% growth during all of FY'17. National defense spending rose 5.9% y/y after slight increases during the last two fiscal years. Health insurance spending eased 0.5% y/y following two years of single-digit growth, while Medicare outlays were little changed y/y. Income security payments were fairly stable y/y after their 2.1% FY'17 decline. Social Security payments increased a steady 3.4% y/y. Interest payments rose 15.6% y/y after 9.2% growth last year.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Dec 2017 | FY'17 | FY'16 | FY'15 | FY'14 | FY'13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-23.2 | $-665.7 | $-585.6 | $-439.1 | $-483.4 | $-680.2 |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% |
| % of Total | |||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2018, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 10.8 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 16.3 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 9 | -18.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 | 17.3 | 12.9 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 34 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 12.1 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 0.4 | -11.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 6.3 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year 2017 YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 1.4 | -2.4 |
| National Defense | 15 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -6.3 |
| Health | 15 | -0.5 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 17.8 | 14.3 | 3.3 |
| Medicare | 15 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 5.5 |
| Income Security | 13 | -0.1 | -2.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 11.5 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 11.1 | 31.6 | -10.2 | 34.7 | 25.9 | -21.9 |
| Interest | 7 | 15.6 | 9.2 | 7.8 | -1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 |
