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Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 11, 2018
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $23.2 billion budget deficit during December 2017 compared to a $27.3 billion deficit in December 2016. A deficit of $50.2 billion had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Net revenues rose 3.9% y/y in the first three months of FY'18. Individual income taxes increased 10.8% y/y following a 2.7% rise during all of last year. The gain in social insurance receipts eased to 2.7% y/y and excise taxes improved 0.4% y/y following last year's 11.8% shortfall. The rate of decline in corporate income taxes picked up to -18.1% y/y after falling 0.8% during all of last fiscal year.
Government spending increased 4.6% y/y so far in FY'18 compared to 3.3% growth during all of FY'17. National defense spending rose 5.9% y/y after slight increases during the last two fiscal years. Health insurance spending eased 0.5% y/y following two years of single-digit growth, while Medicare outlays were little changed y/y. Income security payments were fairly stable y/y after their 2.1% FY'17 decline. Social Security payments increased a steady 3.4% y/y. Interest payments rose 15.6% y/y after 9.2% growth last year.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
United States Government Finance | Dec 2017 | FY'17 | FY'16 | FY'15 | FY'14 | FY'13 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-23.2 | $-665.7 | $-585.6 | $-439.1 | $-483.4 | $-680.2 |
As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% |
% of Total | |||||||
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2018, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% |
Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 10.8 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 16.3 |
Corporate Income Taxes | 9 | -18.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 | 17.3 | 12.9 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 34 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 12.1 |
Excise Taxes | 3 | 0.4 | -11.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 6.3 |
Net Outlays (Fiscal Year 2017 YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 1.4 | -2.4 |
National Defense | 15 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -6.3 |
Health | 15 | -0.5 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 17.8 | 14.3 | 3.3 |
Medicare | 15 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 5.5 |
Income Security | 13 | -0.1 | -2.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 |
Social Security | 24 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 11.5 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 11.1 | 31.6 | -10.2 | 34.7 | 25.9 | -21.9 |
Interest | 7 | 15.6 | 9.2 | 7.8 | -1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 |