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- Australia: International Trade by State (Dec-Prelim)
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Economy in Brief
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016...
U.S. Housing Starts Rise Again in December
Housing starts increased 5.8% (5.2% y/y) during December to 1.669 million...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 11, 2018
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index using new methodology eased 0.1% during December following a 0.4% November increase. It was the first monthly decline since August 2016. The y/y rise nevertheless remained firm at 2.6%, the strongest gain since 2011. A 0.2% December rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The PPI excluding food & energy also slipped 0.1%. A 0.2% rise was expected. The y/y rise of 2.3% moved above the gains of 1.7% in 2016 and 0.2% in 2015.
Using the old methodology for the Producer Price Index, prices fell 0.3% (+3.3% y/y) following a 0.8% gain. Excluding food & energy, the index held steady (2.0% y/y) after two months of 0.3% increase.
An updated measure of core producer price inflation is the overall index excluding food, energy and trade services. It gained 0.1% last month (2.3% y/y) after three months of stronger increase.
Final demand goods prices held steady (3.5% y/y) following a 1.0% jump. The price index excluding food & energy increased 0.2% after two months of 0.3% rise. The 2.3% Dec/Dec gain rose above the 1.7% increase in 2016 and the 0.1% slip during 2015.
Food prices declined 0.7% (+2.1% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. Beef & veal prices weakened 6.3% (+3.3% y/y) after a 3.4% rise. Egg prices were off 4.1% (+48.8% y/y) after a 3.2% decline. Dairy product prices improved 0.2% (-0.7% y/y) and reversed the prior month's increase, while fresh fruit & melon costs declined 0.5% (+6.5% y/y). Energy prices held steady (10.1% y/y) after a 4.6% jump. Gasoline prices declined 3.9% (+16.7% y/y) after a 15.8% jump. Home heating oil prices jumped 13.3% (27.9% y/y) following a 0.9% rise. Natural gas prices improved 0.8% (5.8% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Electric power costs ticked 0.1% higher (2.6% y/y) following a 0.4% increase.
Nondurable consumer goods prices less food & energy held steady (3.8% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. Durable consumer goods prices also were unchanged (1.2% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Household furniture costs rose 0.3% (2.9% y/y) after a 1.1% jump. Passenger car prices rose 0.2% (-0.5% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Light truck prices held steady (1.0% y/y) following a 1.1% surge. Capital equipment prices held steady (1.0% y/y) following a 0.4% jump.
Final demand for services prices eased 0.2% (+2.2% y/y). Prices less trade, transportation & warehousing gained 0.1% (2.3% y/y) following a 0.4% increase. Trade services prices declined 0.6% (+2.1% y/y) after easing 0.3%. Private passenger transportation prices declined 4.3% (-3.7% y/y) following three months of strong increase.
Final demand construction prices slipped 0.1% (+3.0% y/y) as prices for private capital investment eased 0.1% (+3.0% y/y). Prices for public investment ticked 0.1% higher (3.0% y/y).
Prices for intermediate demand for goods strengthened 0.5% (5.1% y/y) for a second consecutive month.
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
Producer Price Index (SA, %, New Methodology) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final Demand | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 0.4 | -0.9 |
Excluding Food & Energy | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
Excluding Food, Energy & Trade Services | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
Goods | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | -1.4 | -4.3 |
Foods | -0.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | -2.8 | -2.6 |
Energy | 0.0 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 10.1 | 10.4 | -8.4 | -20.6 |
Goods Excluding Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
Services | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
Trade Services | -0.6 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Construction | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
Intermediate Demand - Processed Goods | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 5.1 | 4.7 | -3.1 | -16.9 |