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Economy in Brief
U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Dips in May After Seven Straight Monthly Rises
The value of construction put-in-place ticked down 0.1% m/m (+9.7% y/y) in May...
Developed Economies Manufacturing Sectors Hit Hard in June
Among the 18 countries in the table that report manufacturing PMI data in June, only four show m/m improvements...
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
Personal income growth remained solid while household spending slowed in May...
U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level since Aug. '20
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell to 56.0...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 25 declined by 2,000 to 231,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone, CBE January 5, 2018
Manufacturers' orders gained 1.3% in November (8.6% y/y) following a 0.4% rise in October; this earlier number was revised from a 0.1% decrease initially reported. Durable goods orders were also up 1.3% (8.2% y/y); they had fallen 0.4% in October. The upturn was in the transportation sector, where November new orders gained 4.1% (10.1% y/y), reversing a 4.0% drop in October. That swing took place in the nondefense aircraft sector; those orders had dropped 15.8% in October but came back 14.7% in November (110.2% y/y). Orders outside the transportation sector rose 0.8% (7.6% y/y) following a 1.2% jump. Most of that move came in the nondurable goods segment, up 1.4% (8.1% y/y); see the shipments discussion below for more detail. Among durable goods, orders for electrical equipment were up 0.6% (1.1% y/y) in November after 1.1% the month before. Other main sectors had declines, especially computer & electronic products, 0.5% (14.3% y/y), easing after a 1.6% gain in October Orders for machinery fell 1.0% in November (10.4% y/y), also reversing a sizable October rise, 2.8%.
Total factory sector shipments rose 1.2% (7.8% y/y) in November after an 0.8% increase. Durable goods shipments increased 0.9% (7.5% y/y). Transportation equipment shipments jumped 2.6% (6.9% y/y) as nondefense aircraft rebounded 11.9% (10.8% y/y) after October's 12.2% drop. Auto shipments came back 1.1% (-6.8% y/y) after a 2.6% fall. Light truck shipments extended their 4.8% October gain, going up 1.8% in November (13.5% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector, shipments rose 0.9% (7.9% y/y). Those of computer & electronic products gained 0.5% (6.78% y/y), but machinery shipment fell 0.3% (10.3% y/y).
Nondurable goods shipments happen within the same reporting period as orders, and the series are equal. As noted above, these orders/shipments rose 1.4% in November. The value of petroleum refinery shipments increased 6.3% (36.6% y/y) as oil prices continued to rise. Basic chemical shipments were up 1.6% (4.2% y/y), improving on a 1.1% October advance. Textile products and apparel both gained 1.7% in November; textiles were up 5.9% y/y and apparel 6.7% y/y. Food product shipments fell 0.9% (+3.9% y/y)
Unfilled orders edged higher 0.1% (0.57% y/y) in November, following a similar 0.1% rise the month before. Outside the transportation sector, unfilled orders rose 0.5% (4.6% y/y); unfilled orders for the whole manufacturing sector are identical to those for durable goods, since orders and shipments for nondurable goods are seen as equal. Transportation backlogs decreased 0.1% (-1.0% y/y) after a 0.2% decrease in October. Other durable goods sectors saw backlogs up 0.5% (4.6% y/y) with furniture up 0.8% (2.1% y/y), computers, 0.3% (3.4% y/y) and machinery, 0.2% (4.1% y/y).
Inventories at the factory level rose 0.6% (3.7% y/y) in November, modestly firmer than October's 0.3% increase. Outside the transportation sector, they were up 0.5% (4.9% y/y) in November. Durable goods inventories gained 0.2% (3.5% y/y), the same as in October. Fabricated metals inventories strengthened 0.4% (6.1% y/y). Machinery inventories rose 0.2% (+5.5% y/y), reversing a 0.1% dip in October. Inventories of computers & electronic products picked up 0.5% (4.2% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories grew 0.6% (4.1% y/y) in November, equaling October's 0.6% rise. The value of petroleum refinery inventories rose 2.9% (24.0% y/y), again reflecting oil price increases. Apparel inventories fell 0.4% (-4.6% y/y) and textile product stocks were unchanged (3.0% y/y). Food product inventories edged down 0.1% (+0.7% y/y).
All these factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Factory Sector- NAICS Classification (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 8.6 | -1.9 | -7.7 | 1.8 |
Shipments | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 7.8 | -1.8 | -5.8 | 1.3 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -1.9 | -2.0 | 8.4 |
Inventories | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.7 |