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Economy in Brief

U.S. Budget Deficit Continues to Deepen YTD
by Tom Moeller  August 10, 2017

The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government so far in FY'17 has run a $566.0 billion budget deficit compared to a $512.0 billion deficit in the first ten months of FY'16. During July alone, the deficit of $42.9 billion budget deficit compared to a $112.8 billion shortfall in July 2016. A $76.0 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Overall net revenues improved 2.3% y/y so far in FY'17 after a 0.6% rise during FY'16. Individual income taxes increased 3.2% y/y following a 0.3% gain in all of FY'16. Social insurance contributions increased a stable 4.7% y/y, while excise taxes were little changed y/y. Corporate income taxes increased 2.4% y/y following a 12.9% drop during all of FY'16.

Government spending increased 3.6% y/y so far in FY'17 compared to 4.5% growth during all of last year. Health insurance spending improved 4.0% y/y after a 6.0% rise in FY'16, but Medicare outlays declined 1.5% y/y after an 8.8% gain last year. Income security payments fell 1.9% y/y with lower unemployment, but Social Security payments increased a steady 3.1% y/y. National defense expenditures grew 1.0% y/y so far in FY'17 compared to 0.7% growth last year, while interest outlays strengthened 7.7% YTD after a 7.8% FY'16 gain.

Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.

United States Government Finance July FY'16 FY'15 FY'14 FY'13
Budget Balance -- $-42.9 bil. $-587.4 bil. $-438.9 bil. $-483.4 bil. $-680.2 bil.
  As a percent of GDP -- -- 3.2% 2.5% 2.8% 4.1%
% of Total
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2017, Y/Y % Change) 100 2.3% 0.6% 7.6% 8.9% 13.3%
  Individual Income Taxes 47 3.2 0.3 10.5 5.9 16.3
  Corporate Income Taxes 9 2.4 -12.9 7.2 17.3 12.9
  Social Insurance Taxes 34 4.7 4.7 4.1 8.0 12.1
  Excise Taxes 3 0.2 -3.3 5.3 11.1 6.3
Net Outlays  (Fiscal Year 2017 YTD, Y/Y % Change) 100 3.6 4.5 5.3 1.4 -2.4
  National Defense 15 1.0 0.7 -2.3 -4.7 -6.3
  Health 13 4.0 6.0 17.8 14.3 3.3
  Medicare 15 -1.5 8.8 6.7 2.8 5.5
  Income Security 13 -1.9 1.0 -0.9 -4.3 -1.1
  Social Security 24 3.1 3.2 4.4 4.5 5.2
  Veterans Benefits & Services 4 -0.2 9.3 6.8 7.7 11.5
  Education, Training, Employment & Social Services 3 34.1 -10.2 34.7 25.9 -21.9
  Interest 6 7.7 7.8 -1.8 2.8 0.4
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