Recent Updates

  • Spain: PPI (Aug)
  • Austria: Turnover Index, Industrial Production (Jul)
  • Czech Republic: Business Cycle Survey (Sep)
  • Mauritius: IP (Q2); Turkey: Sectoral Confidence Indices (Sep)
  • World Trade Monitor (Jul)
  • Germany: Construction Orders, Employment, Turnover (Jul)
  • Finland: Import Export Price Index, Domestic Supply Prices, WPI (Aug)
  • Manufacturing Survey - Japan (Flash - Sep)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Jump; Aircraft Orders Soar
by Tom Moeller  July 27, 2017

New orders for durable goods strengthened 6.5% (16.1% y/y) during June following a 0.1% May slip, revised from -1.1%. A 2.8% increase in orders had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The rise in orders reflected strength in bookings for nondefense aircraft & parts which more than doubled m/m. It lifted nondefense capital goods orders by 21.0% (38.4% y/y) following declines during the prior two months. Less aircraft, nondefense capital goods orders eased 0.1% (+5.6% y/y) following a 0.7% improvement. A 19.0 rise (36.1% y/y) in transportation sector orders also reflected a 0.6% decline (+3.2% y/y) in motor vehicle & parts orders.

Outside of the transportation sector, durable goods orders improved 0.2%. That lifted y/y growth to 6.8%, up from the declining trend in place during 2015 and 2016. Fabricated metals orders rose 0.7% (10.4% y/y) while primary metals orders ticked 0.1% higher (11.7% y/y). Machinery orders gained 0.2% (10.5% y/y) following a 2.3% jump, but electrical equipment orders fell 1.7% (+2.1% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic products slipped 0.3% (+2.3% y/y) for the second straight month as orders for computers & related products eased 0.2% (+0.5% y/y), the third decline in the last four months. Communications equipment orders strengthened 1.6% (-3.7% y/y).

Shipments of durable goods were little changed (+4.3% y/y) last month. Declines also were logged in 2015 and 2016. Excluding transportation, shipments improved 0.2% (5.4% y/y). Unfilled orders jumped 1.3% (0.7% y/y) owing to the strength in aircraft. Excluding the transportation sector, backlogs improved 0.4% (3.7% y/y). Inventories of durable goods rose 0.4% (2.3% y/y), the largest monthly increase since July. Excluding transportation, inventories jumped 0.7% (3.9% y/y) following y/y decumulation through the end of last year.

The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

Durable Goods NAICS Classification Jun May Apr Jun Y/Y 2016 2015 2014
New Orders (SA, %) 6.5 -0.1 -0.8 16.1 -1.7 -4.6 4.7
  Transportation 19.0 -1.6 -1.6 36.1 -3.4 -6.2 8.2
Total Excluding Transportation 0.2 0.6 -0.4 6.8 -0.7 -3.6 2.9
  Nondefense Capital Goods 21.0 -0.2 -2.4 38.4 -7.1 -11.0 0.9
    Excluding Aircraft -0.1 0.7 0.3 5.6 -4.6 -4.3 0.3
Shipments -0.0 1.2 -0.2 4.3 -1.6 -0.6 3.8
Unfilled Orders 1.3 -0.1 0.2 0.7 -1.7 -2.0 8.3
Inventories 0.4 0.1 0.2 2.3 -0.7 1.6 4.7
close
large image