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Economy in Brief
U.S. Durable Goods Report: Strong Headline, Weaker Details
New orders for durable goods increased 1.2% (3.5% year-on-year) during December following an upwardly-revised 1.0% gain...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Slide
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell a greater-than-expected 1.2% in January...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Tumbles in February
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported manufacturing conditions weakened considerably in February with its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decline
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 216,000 in the week ended February 16, down 23,000 from the previous week's...
EMU PMIs Continue to Move Together...Mostly Lower
The composite EMU German and French indices all rose by small amounts...
by Tom Moeller July 13, 2017
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 247,000 during the week ended July 8 from 250,000, revised from 248,000, in the prior week. Expectations called for 245,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average rose slightly to 245,750, the highest level since early-April. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined to 1.945 million (-9.8% y/y) in the week ended July 1 and reversed the prior week's increase. The four-week moving average of claimants increased to 1.949 million, the highest level since late-April.
The insured unemployment rate remained at the record low of 1.4%.
Insured rates of unemployment continue to vary widely across the country. For the week ended June 24, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.31%), Indiana (0.51%), Nebraska (0.52%), North Carolina (0.55%), Florida (0.64%) and Tennessee (0.82%). The highest rates were found in Alaska (2.38%), New Jersey (2.30%), Connecticut (2.30%), California (2.13%), Massachusetts (1.79%) and Illinois (1.77%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
The unemployment insurance claims data begin January 2, 1971. Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 07/08/17 | 7/01/17 | 06/24/17 | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 247 | 250 | 244 | -5.0 | 263 | 278 | 308 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,945 | 1,965 | -9.8 | 2,136 | 2,267 | 2,599 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.4 | 1.4 |
1.6 |
1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 |