- Korea: Housing Price Index (Apr)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-final), GDP (Q1 Adv), ECI (Q1)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Apr-final)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables (Q1-Adv), Summary key Source Data (Q1)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Feb), Industrial Product Prices (Mar)
- *Taiwan National House Price Indexes Rebased to 2016=100.*
- Euro area: HICP (Apr-Flash), ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2)
- Italy: CPI, HICP (Apr-Prelim)
- Brazil: Sao Paolo Capacity Utilization (Mar);Mexico: Debt (Mar);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Has Stronger Gain
Lifted by outsized rises in several industries, the employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% (2.4% y/y) during Q1'17...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Strengthens
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index for April increased to 58.3 from 57.7 in March...
EMU Money and Credit Perk Up
There is some noticeable acceleration in EMU money and credit growth...
Durable Goods Orders Improvement Moderates
New orders for durable goods rose 0.7% (4.5% y/y) during March...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase
Initial unemployment claims for unemployment insurance rose to 257,000 during the week ended April 22...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Ease
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales slipped 0.8% ((+0.8% y/y) during March...
by Tom Moeller April 20, 2017
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (3.5% y/y) during March following a 0.5% February rise, initially reported as 0.6%. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest rise left three-month growth at 6.2% (AR) after 3.6% growth during Q4'16.
Most of the component series contributed to the index rise. A steeper interest rate yield curve and a higher ISM new orders index had the largest positive effects. These were followed by improved consumer expectations for business/economic conditions, higher stock prices, more building permits and the leading credit index. A shorter workweek and more initial claims for unemployment insurance contributed negatively to the index.
The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators increased 0.2% during March (2.0% y/y) following a 0.2% February rise, which was revised slightly lower. January's reading also was revised down to no change. The latest gain left the three-month growth rate at 1.4% (AR) after a 2.5% Q4 rise. Each of the index component series contributed positively to last month's rise, including payroll employment, real personal income less transfers, manufacturing & trade sales and industrial production.
The Index of Lagging Economic Indicators remained unchanged (2.3% y/y) following two months of 0.2% increase. Three-month growth fell to 1.6%, its weakest increase since August. A rise in the prime rate charged by banks and an increase in the business sector inventory-to-sales ratio where offset by slower growth in the services CPI and a shorter duration of unemployment.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators also is a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures excesses in the economy relative to its ongoing performance. This ratio increased slightly after two months at its record low.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
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