Recent Updates

  • Poland: Assets of Insurance Companies (Q2); Latvia: PPI (Aug); Lithuania: IP (Aug); Hungary: Inflation Expectations and Forecasts (Sep); Slovenia: Consumer Confidence (Sep), PPI (Aug)
  • Switzerland: Foreign Trade (Aug); Portugal: BOP, Cent Gov Debt, Monetary Survey, MFI Balance Sheet, Securities (Jul)
  • Macao: CPI (Aug); Korea: Frist 20 Days of Trade (Sep); Hong Kong: CPI (Aug), IIP, Gross External Debt (Q2); Thailand: International Trade (Aug)
  • Norway: International Reserves (Aug), Monetary Policy Projection
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Private Payroll Increase Strengthens
by Tom Moeller  April 5, 2017

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payroll employment rose 263,000 (1.9% y/y) during March, the strongest increase since December 2014. The rise followed a 245,000 February gain, revised from 298,000 and a 249,000 increase during January, revised from 261,000. Expectations had been for a 190,000 March rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.

Small-sized business payrolls increased 118,000 (1.6% y/y), the strongest rise since June. Hiring by medium-sized businesses rose 100,000 (1.8% y/y), the firmest increase since January 2016. Large-sized businesses posted a reduced 45,000 increase in jobs (2.5% y/y).

Service-producing payrolls increased 181,000 (1.9% y/y) after a 145,000 rise, which was revised down from 181,000. Leisure & hospitality employment gained 55,000 (2.0% y/y), the strongest increase in twelve months. Professional & business payrolls rose 57,000 (3.0% y/y), the firmest gain since November. Jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose an improved 34,000 (1.2% y/y). Financial sector payrolls jumped 25,000 (2.1% y/y), the strongest increase since December 2005. Employment in education & health services rose a weakened 13,000 (2.4% y/y).

Goods-producing employment strengthened 82,000 (1.6% y/y). Construction industry employment jumped 49,000 (3.5% y/y) while hiring in the factory sector improved 30,000 (0.7% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Mar Feb Jan Mar Y/Y 2016 2015 2014
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 263 245 249 1.9% 1.9% 2.3% 2.2%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 118 87 74 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.8
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 100 95 96 1.8 1.5 2.3 2.8
 Large Payroll (>500) 45 63 79 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.1
Goods-Producing 82 100 62 1.6 0.8 2.0 2.6
  Construction 49 59 35 3.5 4.1 5.2 4.9
  Manufacturing 30 33 24 0.7 0.2 1.2 1.4
Service-Producing 181 145 187 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.2
close
large image