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Economy in Brief
Japan’s Trade Surplus Returns Even As Trade Flows Slow
While the IMF has just lifted its outlook for growth in 2018, Japan is logging weaker and weaker export and import growth as the year progresses...
U.S. Industrial Production Strengthens; Factory Output Ticks Higher
The Fed reported that industrial production increased 0.5% (4.3% y/y) during March...
U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits Recover
Total housing starts in March increased 1.9% to 1.319 million units (SAAR)...
U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices Strengthen
Retail gasoline prices rebounded to $2.75 per gallon last week (22.8% y/y)...
ZEW Expectations Take a Dive: From Fear to Eternity
Current conditions indexes in the ZEW framework usually do not change by much month-to-month...
by Carol Stone, CBE March 15, 2017
Total retail sales and spending at restaurants rose 0.1% (5.7% y/y) in February following a 0.6% increase in January, which was revised up from 0.4%. The February result was in line with the 0.1% increase expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Sales at motor vehicles & parts dealers decreased again in February, by 0.2% (5.6% y/y), following January's 1.3% decline. This corresponded to a similar February decrease of 0.2% in unit sales of light vehicles. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.2% (5.7% y/y) after January's 1.2% gain; this latest result was also in line with the Action Economics consensus forecast. Sales at gasoline service stations fell, along with gasoline prices; sales were down 0.6% (19.6% y/y) as the February CPI for gasoline dropped 3.0%. Those sales had risen 2.1% in January. Retail sales excluding both auto dealers & gas stations were up 0.2% (4.2% y/y) in February following a 1.0% January rise.
In nonauto discretionary spending categories, furniture store sales rose 0.7% (4.9% y/y) after January's 2.4% increase. Several other store groups that had had January gains after a slow December turned slower again or had outright declines in February; electronics & appliance store sales, which had rebounded from a 1.1% fall in December to a 1.1% gain in January, then dropped 2.8% (-6.0% y/y) in February. Clothing store sales fell in February by 0.5% (1.6% y/y) after a January rise of 1.2%. General merchandise store sales were down 0.2% (1.5% y/y) following a 1.5% increase. Sporting goods store sales were off 0.4% (-3.6% y/y) after January's 1.4% rise.
In the non-discretionary spending categories, health & personal care store sales increased 0.7% (7.0% y/y) in January, just a bit slower than January's 0.9% rise. Food & beverage store sales were flat in February (2.2% y/y) after January's 0.4% rise.
Nonstore retailers' sales were up 1.2% (13.0% y/y), following January's 0.5% increase. These include online shopping and mail order outlets; they represent about 10.5% of total retail sales.
Sales at food service & drinking places eased 0.1% in February (3.7% y/y) after January's sizable 1.7% advance.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast expectations are included in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 4.2 |
Excluding Autos | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 3.7 |
Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
Retail Sales | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 4.0 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | -0.2 | -1.3 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 3.3 |
Gasoline Stations | -0.6 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 19.6 | -6.2 | -19.2 | -2.3 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -0.1 | 1.7 | -1.0 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 6.1 |