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Economy in Brief
Japan’s Trade Surplus Returns Even As Trade Flows Slow
While the IMF has just lifted its outlook for growth in 2018, Japan is logging weaker and weaker export and import growth as the year progresses...
U.S. Industrial Production Strengthens; Factory Output Ticks Higher
The Fed reported that industrial production increased 0.5% (4.3% y/y) during March...
U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits Recover
Total housing starts in March increased 1.9% to 1.319 million units (SAAR)...
U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices Strengthen
Retail gasoline prices rebounded to $2.75 per gallon last week (22.8% y/y)...
ZEW Expectations Take a Dive: From Fear to Eternity
Current conditions indexes in the ZEW framework usually do not change by much month-to-month...
by Tom Moeller December 14, 2016
Consumers grew cautious ahead of the holiday spending season. Total retail sales & spending at restaurants nudged 0.1% higher (3.8% y/y) during November following a 0.6% October rise, revised from 0.8%. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Three-month sales growth eased to 1.2%, its slowest pace since May.
A 0.5% decline (+3.3% y/y) in purchases of motor vehicles & parts held back last month's overall spending increase. The decline roughly matched a 0.8% drop in unit sales of light vehicles. Excluding autos, overall retail sales improved 0.2% (3.9% y/y) after a 0.6% gain. That was the weakest rise in three months. A 0.5% increase had been expected.
Retail sales eased slightly last month (+3.6% y/y) after a 0.7% rise. Discretionary spending growth slowed markedly. Purchases at nonstore retailers improved a minimal 0.1% (11.9% y/y) following a strong 1.4% increase. Also weakening were sales at sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores which fell 1.0% (-1.4% y/y) following a 0.7% rise. Building materials & garden equipment store sales increased 0.3% (4.3% y/y) for a second straight month. Gasoline service station sales also improved 0.3% (4.0% y/y) following two months of strong gains with higher prices. To the upside were restaurant sales. Sales at food service & drinking places rose 0.8% (4.9% y/y), a rebound after a 0.3% decline.
Sales in the retail control group, which measures nonauto sales less gasoline & building materials, inched 0.1% higher (3.4% y/y), the weakest gain in three months. Three-month growth improved, however, to 4.1%, the strongest rise since Q2. Sales of furniture & home furnishings gained 0.7% (4.1% y/y) after a 0.5 decline, while sales at electronics & appliance stores ticked 0.1% higher (-3.8% y/y) following five consecutive monthly declines. Clothing & accessory store sales remained unchanged (0.9% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Sales of general merchandise stores gained 0.1% (-1.3% y/y) after six consecutive monthly declines.
In the non-discretionary spending categories, food & beverage store sales increased 0.4% (3.1% y/y) following a 0.7% increase. Purchases at health & personal care stores ticked 0.1% higher (6.2% y/y) following no change.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database.
Retail Spending (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
Excluding Autos | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 2.7 |
Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services (Control Group) | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.9 |
Retail Sales | -0.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 8.3 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
Gasoline Stations | 0.3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 4.0 | -19.4 | -2.4 | -1.2 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 |