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Economy in Brief

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Rebounds
by Tom Moeller  November 30, 2016

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index increased to 57.6 during November and recouped an unrevised October decline to 50.6. The latest was the highest level since January 2015. The figure compared to expectations for 52.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index using the Chicago numbers, comparable to the overall ISM index to be released tomorrow. Our figure increased to 56.4, the highest level since December 2014. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.

The new orders series jumped to 63.2 from 52.5, the highest level since June. The production series improved to 59.1 and made up most of its October decline. The order backlog series jumped to 52.8, the highest level since June. The inventories figure increased sharply to 56.1, the highest level since October.

Working the other way, the employment figure eased to below break-even at 49.7 versus 51.1 in October. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the employment figure and the m/m change in factory sector employment.

The prices paid reading also declined to 56.8 from 59.5. The figure compared to a February low of 41.1. A lessened 19% (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while a steady 8% paid less.

The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) Nov Oct Sep Nov '15 2015 2014 2013
General Business Barometer 57.6 50.6 54.2 47.7 50.3 60.7 56.0
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer 56.4 51.0 53.7 48.7 51.6 59.3 54.2
  Production 59.1 54.4 59.8 50.5 52.5 64.5 58.2
  New Orders 63.2 52.5 54.1 44.5 50.4 63.8 59.1
  Order Backlogs 52.8 44.4 42.3 46.3 44.4 54.2 48.8
  Inventories 56.1 45.9 50.3 47.2 52.1 55.9 45.6
  Employment 49.7 51.1 49.2 49.8 50.3 56.0 55.6
  Supplier Deliveries 53.9 51.2 55.0 51.6 52.5 56.5 52.5
  Prices Paid 56.8 59.5 55.5 42.2 46.8 61.0 59.8
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