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Economy in Brief

U.S. Budget Deficit Equals $44.2 Billion
by Tom Moeller  November 10, 2016

The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a budget deficit of $44.2 billion during October compared to a $136.6 billion deficit one year earlier. A $74.0 billion deficit was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These results were inflated by calendar timing differentials.

The Congressional Budget Office expects a $594 billion deficit in FY'17. In FY'16 the deficit rose to $587.4 billion from $438.9 billion in FY'15, and from $483.9 billion in FY'14. Receipts improved 0.6% last year while outlays increased 4.5%.

Overall revenues grew an inflated 5.0% last month versus last October 2015. Individual income taxes grew 11.3% y/y after 0.6% growth in FY'16. Net outlays declined by nearly one-quarter y/y. These results were inflated by calendar timing differentials.

Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.

United States Government Finance October FY'16 FY'15 FY'14 FY'13
Budget Balance -- $-44.2 bil. $-587.4 bil. $-438.9 bil. $-483.4 bil. $-680.2 bil.
  As a percent of GDP -- -- 3.2% 2.5% 2.8% 4.1%
% of Total
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year 2016, Y/Y % Change) 100 5.0% 0.6% 7.6% 8.9% 13.3%
  Individual Income Taxes 47 11.3 0.3 10.5 5.9 16.3
  Corporate Income Taxes 9 -46.5 -12.9 7.2 17.3 12.9
  Social Insurance Taxes 34 3.3 4.7 4.1 8.0 12.1
  Excise Taxes 3 2.3 -3.3 5.3 11.1 6.3
Net Outlays  (Fiscal year 2016, Y/Y % Change) 100 -23.5 4.5 5.3 1.4 -2.4
  National Defense 15 -13.9 0.7 -2.3 -4.7 -6.3
  Health 13 -4.2 6.0 17.8 14.3 3.3
  Medicare 15 -68.7 8.8 6.7 2.8 5.5
  Income Security 13 -43.4 1.0 -0.9 -4.3 -1.1
  Social Security 24 3.8 3.2 4.4 4.5 5.2
  Veterans Benefits & Services 4 -64.1 9.3 6.8 7.7 11.5
  Education, Training, Employment & Social Services 3 -32.5 -10.2 34.7 25.9 -21.9
  Interest 6 17.0 7.8 -1.8 2.8 0.4
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