Recent Updates

  • Spain: PPI (Aug)
  • Austria: Turnover Index, Industrial Production (Jul)
  • Czech Republic: Business Cycle Survey (Sep)
  • Mauritius: IP (Q2); Turkey: Sectoral Confidence Indices (Sep)
  • World Trade Monitor (Jul)
  • Germany: Construction Orders, Employment, Turnover (Jul)
  • Finland: Import Export Price Index, Domestic Supply Prices, WPI (Aug)
  • Manufacturing Survey - Japan (Flash - Sep)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Private Payroll Gains Ease
by Tom Moeller  October 5, 2016

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated a 154,000 rise (1.9% y/y) in nonfarm private payrolls during September following a 175,000 August gain, revised from 177,000. It was the smallest rise since April. So far this year, payrolls rose an average 181,000 per month, down from 207,000 averaged during 2015, and 234,000 averaged in 2014. The latest increase compared to expectations for a 166,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The ADP Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.

Small-sized business payrolls increased 34,000 (1.9% y/y) after a 68,000 gain. These increases were down from the high of 124,000 averaged in Q2'14. Hiring by medium-sized businesses rose 56,000 (1.6% y/y) compared to a 40,000 August increase, less than the 105,000 averaged in Q4'14. Large-sized businesses posted a 64,000 rise in jobs (2.5% y/y), up from the 24,000 rise in April.

Service-producing payrolls increased 151,000 (2.3% y/y) after a 184,000 rise. Professional & business payrolls rose 45,000 (3.1% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities jobs improved 15,000 (1.4% y/y). Financial activity payrolls increased 11,000 (1.9% y/y).

Goods-producing jobs improved 3,000 (+0.1% y/y), the first increase in six months. The construction industry added 11,000 jobs (2.3% y/y), the first rise since May. Peak monthly hiring growth of 33,000 construction workers occurred in Q4'14. Hiring in the factory sector declined 6,000 (-0.2% y/y) after a 4,000 shortfall.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Sep Aug Jul Sep Y/Y 2015 2014 2013
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 154 175 196 1.9% 2.3% 2.2% 1.9%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 34 68 69 1.9 2.6 2.1 1.9
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 56 40 71 1.6 2.3 2.8 2.2
 Large Payroll (>500) 64 67 56 2.5 1.7 1.6 1.5
Goods-Producing 3 -9 -5 0.1 1.8 2.4 1.8
  Construction 11 -2 -5 2.3 4.5 4.7 3.7
  Manufacturing -6 -4 5 -0.2 1.1 1.3 0.8
Service-Producing 151 184 200 2.3 2.4 2.2 1.9
close
large image