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Economy in Brief

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Rebounds
by Tom Moeller  September 30, 2016

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index increased to 54.2 during September following an unrevised fall during August to 51.5. The figure compared to expectations for 51.9 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index using the Chicago numbers, comparable to the overall ISM index to be released Monday. Our figure rose to 53.7, and recovered most of its August decline. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.

The production series rebounded to 59.8, its highest level since January. The supplier delivery measure also recovered to the highest point since May, and indicated slower delivery speeds. The new orders, inventory and order backlog measures rose just slightly.

The employment figure backpedaled to 49.2 after two months of showing payroll expansion. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the employment figure and the m/m change in factory sector employment.

The prices paid reading rose to 55.5, and made up the prior month's decline, The figure compared to a February low of 41.1. A steady 14% (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while a higher 8% paid less.

The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) Sep Aug Jul Sep '15 2015 2014 2013
General Business Barometer 54.2 51.5 55.8 47.8 50.3 60.7 56.0
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer 53.7 52.5 54.2 49.1 51.6 59.3 54.2
  Production 59.8 52.5 54.6 41.8 52.5 64.5 58.2
  New Orders 54.1 53.9 59.3 49.2 50.4 63.8 59.1
  Order Backlogs 42.3 41.7 56.2 45.4 44.4 54.2 48.8
  Inventories 50.3 49.8 52.0 51.5 52.1 55.9 45.6
  Employment 49.2 53.7 52.2 51.4 50.3 56.0 55.6
  Supplier Deliveries 55.0 52.7 53.1 51.8 52.5 56.5 52.5
  Prices Paid 55.5 54.6 55.1 42.8 46.8 61.0 59.8
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