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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Slips in January
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo declined 3.5% m/m (+10.7% y/y) in January...
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 14, 2016
Initial unemployment insurance claims held steady at 254,000 (-8.6% y/y) during the week ended July 9. It was the lowest level since mid-April and near a record low. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 265,000 claims. The four-week moving average of claims fell to 259,000. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
In the week ending July 2, continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 2.149 million (-3.8% y/y) from 2.117 million. Continuing claims were near the lowest level since 2000. The four-week moving average eased to 2.143 million.
The insured rate of unemployment notched higher to 1.6%.
Insured rates of unemployment continued to vary across states. Near the low end of the range were South Dakota (0.36%), Nebraska (0.53%) Florida (0.69%), Indiana (0.75%), Virginia (0.78%) and Tennessee (0.83%). At the high end of the scale were Texas (1.67%), Nevada (1.85%), Massachusetts (1.94%), Illinois (1.94%), New Jersey (2.42%) and Pennsylvania (2.44%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/09/16 | 07/02/16 | 06/25/16 | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 254 | 254 | 270 | -8.6% | 277 | 307 | 342 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,149 | 2,117 | -3.8 | 2,268 | 2,607 | 2,978 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.6 | 1.5 |
1.7 |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |