Recent Updates
- UK: Gfk Consumer Confidence Barometer (Jan), Retail Sales (Dec)
- Japan: CPI, Checks and Bills Clearing (Dec)
- Malaysia: CPI (Dec)
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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Slips in January
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo declined 3.5% m/m (+10.7% y/y) in January...
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 8, 2016
Consumer credit outstanding increased $18.6 billion during May following an unrevised $13.4 billion April gain. A $15.2 billion increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 46% correlation between the y/y growth in consumer credit and y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.
Nonrevolving credit borrowing grew $16.2 billion (6.6% y/y) after a little-revised $12.0 billion gain. Federal government loans (36% of the total) increased 11.3% y/y. Finance company balances (24% of the total) eased 1.5% y/y. Borrowing at depository institutions (25% of the total) improved 5.3% y/y, and borrowing at credit unions (11% of the total) jumped 16.3% y/y. Nonprofit & educational institution loans (2% of the total) declined 9.6% y/y, and nonfinancial business loans (1% of the total) remained unchanged y/y.
Revolving consumer credit increased $2.4 billion after a $1.4 billion rise, last month reported as $1.6 billion. Balances at depository institutions (84% of the total) grew 8.2% y/y. Finance company holdings (6% of the total) fell 8.3% y/y, while borrowing from credit unions (5% of the total) advanced 5.6% y/y. Nonfinancial business credit (2% of the total) fell 11.7% y/y, and securitized credit card balances (3% of the total) declined 16.4% y/y.
Student loans during Q1 increased 6.5% y/y while motor vehicle loan rose 8.1% y/y.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | May | Apr | Mar | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | $18.6 bil. | $13.4 bil. | $29.4 bil. | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% |
Revolving | 2.4 | 1.4 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
Nonrevolving | 16.2 | 12.0 | 19.1 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 7.9 |