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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Private Payrolls Increase Moderately
by Tom Moeller  July 7, 2016

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 172,000 during June following a 168,000 May increase, revised from 173,000. During all of last quarter, payrolls rose an average 163,000 per month following a Q1'16 average of 200,000. The latest increase compared to expectations for a 152,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The ADP Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.

Small-sized business payrolls increased 95,000 (1.9% y/y) after an 84,000 gain. These increases were down from the high of 124,000 averaged in Q2'14. A 52,000 increase (1.6% y/y) in hiring by medium-sized businesses was near the 60,000 May increase, but was less than the 105,000 averaged in Q4'14. Large-sized businesses posted a 25,000 increase in jobs after a 23,000 rise, but these gains compare to 67,000 averaged in Q4'15.

Service-producing payrolls increased 208,000 after a 173,000 rise. In Q2'15 growth averaged 221,000 per month. Professional & business payrolls rose 51,000, down from 65,000 in Q2'15. Trade, transportation & utilities growth improved to 55,000, and roughly equaled its high, but financial activities growth fell sharply to 2,000 from 15,000 in Q1'15.

Goods-producing jobs declined 36,000, the third decline in the last four months. The peak for growth came in Q4'15 with a 16,000 average monthly increase. The construction industry shed 5,000 jobs after a 9,000 increase. Peak monthly hiring growth of 33,000 construction workers occurred in Q4'14. Hiring in the factory sector declined 21,000, down for the fifth straight month.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Jun May Apr Jun Y/Y 2015 2014 2013
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 172 168 149 1.9% 2.3% 2.2% 1.9%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 95 84 95 1.9 2.6 2.1 1.9
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 52 60 30 1.6 2.3 2.8 2.2
 Large Payroll (>500) 25 23 25 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.5
Goods-Producing -36 -5 -13 0.2 1.8 2.4 1.8
  Construction -5 9 10 3.1 4.5 4.7 3.7
  Manufacturing -21 -3 -11 -0.3 1.1 1.3 0.8
Service-Producing 208 173 162 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.9
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