Recent Updates
- US: Housing Vacancies & Homeownership (Q1), FHFA Home Mortgage Terms, Advance Durable Goods, Advance Trade & Inventories (Mar)
- Canada: Payroll, Employment, Earnings & Hours (Feb)
- Spain: Mortgage Market, Labor Force Survey (Q1) State Public Finance (Mar), Social Security Funds, Consolidated, Central Government Public Finances (Feb), Tax Receipts (Q1, Mar)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline Sharply
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 209,000 (-17.1% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Are Little Changed; Rates Remain High
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index eased 0.2% last week (-1.9% y/y)...
Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
Japan’s sector indexes showed a solid gain in February...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Rose in April
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 128.7 in April from 127.0 (initially reported as 127.7) in March...
U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes during March increased 4.0% (8.8% y/y) to 694,000 (SAAR)...
by Tom Moeller February 17, 2016
Overall industrial production jumped 0.9% during January (-0.7% y/y) following declines in the prior three months. It was the largest increase since November 2014. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. December's decline was revised to -0.7% from -0.4% reported last month. The latest increase in overall production was paced by a 5.4% jump (-2.8% y/y) in utility output. That was accompanied by no change (-9.8% y/y) in mining production, which followed four consecutive months of sharp decline.
Factory sector production increased 0.5% (1.2% y/y) after two months of 0.2% decline. A 1.6% jump (1.3% y/y) in consumer goods output was powered by a 2.8% gain (6.2% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts. The rise followed, however, two months of sharp decline. Primary metals production also posted a solid 2.2% improvement (-2.4% y/y). Furniture output gained 1.4% (2.3% y/y) after a 2.3% fall and machinery production strengthened 0.7% (-4.1% y/y), following three straight months of sharp decline. To the downside, electrical equipment production fell 1.4% (+5.8% y/y) after a 2.1% rise.
In the nondurable goods sector, industrial production improved 0.5% (1.7% y/y) after three months of little change. Apparel output fell 2.1% (-9.1% y/y) and is off roughly 80% during the last twenty years. Output of petroleum & coal products eased 0.2% (+1.3% y/y), down for the third straight month. To the upside, food, beverage & tobacco manufacturing gained 0.8% (2.2% y/y) while chemical output increased 1.1% (2.8% y/y).
Business equipment production improved 0.3% (-1.4% y/y) as transit equipment production gained 0.3% (-0.2% y/y). Materials output strengthened 0.9% (-1.5% y/y) after three months of decline.
In the special aggregate groupings, production of high technology products increased 0.6% (1.6% y/y) following a 0.9% rise. The gain was powered by a 3.7% jump (1.1% y/y) in computers & equipment after a 1.7% strengthening. Semiconductor output rose 0.4% (2.6% y/y), but communications equipment production fell 0.8% (-1.9% y/y). Overall factory sector production, excluding both autos and high-tech, increased 0.3% (0.9% y/y).
The capacity utilization rate increased to 77.1% last month. That remained down, however, from 78.7% twelve months earlier. Utilization in the factory sector improved to 76.1%, equaling the rate last January. Utilization in the mining industry ticked up m/m to 78.8%, but that remained down from the 2014 high of 91.6%. Overall industry capacity rose 1.3% y/y and factory sector capacity increased 1.2% y/y.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Output | 0.9 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.7 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
Manufacturing | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
Consumer Goods | 1.6 | -0.7 | -0.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
Business Equipment | 0.3 | -0.8 | -1.3 | -1.4 | 1.8 | 4.8 | -0.4 |
Construction Supplies | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 |
Materials | 0.8 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.5 | 1.5 | 5.1 | 3.1 |
Utilities | 5.4 | -2.9 | -3.7 | -2.8 | -0.6 | 1.0 | 2.5 |
Mining | 0.0 | -2.1 | -1.7 | -9.8 | -1.5 | 10.8 | 6.5 |
Capacity Utilization (%) | 77.1 | 76.4 | 77.0 | 78.7 | 77.8 | 78.1 | 76.7 |
Manufacturing | 76.1 | 75.8 | 76.0 | 76.1 | 76.1 | 75.3 | 74.0 |