Recent Updates

  • US: New Residential Sales, Final Building Permits (May)
  • Israel: LFS, Vacancy Rate (May); Turkey: Capacity Utilization (Jun); South Africa: Domestic Bond Holdings, Liquidations & Insolvencies (May); Algeria: CPI (May)
  • Cambodia: GDP (2017); China: Banking Assets and Liabilities, Central Government Operations (May), Central Government Debt (Q1); Taiwan: Visitor Arrivals, IP, Shipments and Inventories, Wholesale and Retail Sales (May); Vietnam: Motor Vehicle Sales (May); Singapore: CPI (May); Indonesia:
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Personal Spending and Income Rise 0.3%
by Tom Moeller  December 23, 2015

Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3% during November (2.9% y/y) following no change in October, revised from 0.1%. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Spending also rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y) in constant dollars as prices remained unchanged. A 1.4% increase (6.3% y/y) in real home furnishing & appliances purchases led last month's gain as it added to a 0.3% rise. Recreational goods buying was notably strong and rose 1.0% (10.1% y/y) on the heels of a 1.6% jump. Real motor vehicle purchases gained 1.0% (-0.2% y/y), rebounding from a 2.2% fall. Nondurable goods sales also strengthened 0.9% in constant dollars (3.0% y/y) after two months of slight decline. Real purchases at gasoline filling stations were notably firm, rising 1.6% (2.4% y) and rebounding from a 2.1% shortfall. Clothing spending strengthened 1.1% in real terms (2.1% y/y), food & beverage buying also gained 1.1% (1.1% y/y) but "other" purchases improved a lesser 0.5% (5.2% y/y). Real spending on services was little-changed (2.0%) for a second consecutive month. Real health care outlays rose 0.2% (3.6% y/y), the smallest rise since April, but recreation services spending fell 1.1% (-0.0% y/y) after a 0.1% rise.

Personal income improved 0.3% (4.4% y/y) after an unrevised 0.4% increase. A 0.2% rise had been expected. It was powered by a 0.5% gain (4.5% y/y) in wage & salaries which followed a 0.6% rise. Rental income jumped 0.8% (7.2% y/y) for the second straight month. Transfer receipts rose 0.3% (5.2% y/y), driven by a 2.2% jump (13.4% y/y) in payments to veterans. Medicare receipts rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) for a second month. Jobless insurance benefits recovered 0.9% (0.9% y/y) after declines in three of the prior four months. Proprietors earnings ticked 0.1% higher (2.7% y/y) after two 0.4% increases. Dividend earnings declined 0.8% (+3.2% y/y) while interest earnings fell 0.2% (+3.1% y/y) for the second straight month.

Disposable personal income increased 0.3% (3.9% y/y) after a 0.4% gain. Adjusted for price inflation, take-home pay rose 0.2% (3.5% y/y), the smallest rise since June.

The personal savings rate eased to 5.5% from an unrevised 5.6%. The rate remained nearly the highest since 2012. Personal saving increased 23.3% during the last twelve months.

The chain price index held steady (0.4% y/y) after three months of little change. The index change was held back by a 0.3% fall (-1.7% y/y) in durable goods prices and food prices moved 0.2% lower (+0.3% y/y) after four straight 0.2% increases. Nondurable goods prices fell 0.4% (-3.1% y/y) as energy prices declined 1.4% (-15.8% y/y). Services prices improved 0.2% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.1% rise. The price index excluding food & energy edged 0.1% higher (1.3% y/y) after having been unchanged.

The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

Personal Income & Outlays (%) Nov Oct Sep Y/Y 2014 2013 2012
Personal Income 0.3 0.4 0.2 4.4 4.4 1.1 5.0
  Wages & Salaries 0.5 0.6 0.1 4.5 5.1 2.7 4.5
Disposable Personal Income 0.3 0.4 0.2 3.9 4.2 -0.1 5.1
Personal Consumption Expenditures 0.3 0.0 0.2 2.9 4.2 3.1 3.4
Personal Saving Rate 5.5 5.6 5.2 4.6
(Nov. '14)
4.8 4.8 7.6
PCE Chain Price Index 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.4 1.4 1.4 1.9
  Less Food & Energy 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.9
Real Disposable Income 0.2 0.3 0.3 3.5 2.7 -1.4 3.1
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 0.3 -0.0 0.2 2.5 2.7 1.7 1.5
close
large image