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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 23, 2015
Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3% during November (2.9% y/y) following no change in October, revised from 0.1%. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Spending also rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y) in constant dollars as prices remained unchanged. A 1.4% increase (6.3% y/y) in real home furnishing & appliances purchases led last month's gain as it added to a 0.3% rise. Recreational goods buying was notably strong and rose 1.0% (10.1% y/y) on the heels of a 1.6% jump. Real motor vehicle purchases gained 1.0% (-0.2% y/y), rebounding from a 2.2% fall. Nondurable goods sales also strengthened 0.9% in constant dollars (3.0% y/y) after two months of slight decline. Real purchases at gasoline filling stations were notably firm, rising 1.6% (2.4% y) and rebounding from a 2.1% shortfall. Clothing spending strengthened 1.1% in real terms (2.1% y/y), food & beverage buying also gained 1.1% (1.1% y/y) but "other" purchases improved a lesser 0.5% (5.2% y/y). Real spending on services was little-changed (2.0%) for a second consecutive month. Real health care outlays rose 0.2% (3.6% y/y), the smallest rise since April, but recreation services spending fell 1.1% (-0.0% y/y) after a 0.1% rise.
Personal income improved 0.3% (4.4% y/y) after an unrevised 0.4% increase. A 0.2% rise had been expected. It was powered by a 0.5% gain (4.5% y/y) in wage & salaries which followed a 0.6% rise. Rental income jumped 0.8% (7.2% y/y) for the second straight month. Transfer receipts rose 0.3% (5.2% y/y), driven by a 2.2% jump (13.4% y/y) in payments to veterans. Medicare receipts rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) for a second month. Jobless insurance benefits recovered 0.9% (0.9% y/y) after declines in three of the prior four months. Proprietors earnings ticked 0.1% higher (2.7% y/y) after two 0.4% increases. Dividend earnings declined 0.8% (+3.2% y/y) while interest earnings fell 0.2% (+3.1% y/y) for the second straight month.
Disposable personal income increased 0.3% (3.9% y/y) after a 0.4% gain. Adjusted for price inflation, take-home pay rose 0.2% (3.5% y/y), the smallest rise since June.
The personal savings rate eased to 5.5% from an unrevised 5.6%. The rate remained nearly the highest since 2012. Personal saving increased 23.3% during the last twelve months.
The chain price index held steady (0.4% y/y) after three months of little change. The index change was held back by a 0.3% fall (-1.7% y/y) in durable goods prices and food prices moved 0.2% lower (+0.3% y/y) after four straight 0.2% increases. Nondurable goods prices fell 0.4% (-3.1% y/y) as energy prices declined 1.4% (-15.8% y/y). Services prices improved 0.2% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.1% rise. The price index excluding food & energy edged 0.1% higher (1.3% y/y) after having been unchanged.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Personal Income & Outlays (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 5.0 |
Wages & Salaries | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 4.5 |
Disposable Personal Income | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 4.2 | -0.1 | 5.1 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
Personal Saving Rate | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.6 (Nov. '14) |
4.8 | 4.8 | 7.6 |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
Real Disposable Income | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | -1.4 | 3.1 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.3 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 |