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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Ease Broadly
The price of regular gasoline eased to $2.85 per gallon (+53.8% y/y) in the week ended April 12...
U.S. Government Budget Deficit Widens During March
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $659.6 billion during March...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve Modestly
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller December 17, 2015
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% during November following an unrevised 0.6% October rise. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% November gain. Three-month growth in the index jumped to 3.9% (AR), but it remained down from 6.7% in June. The largest positive contributions to the latest rise came from stronger building permits, a steeper interest rate yield curve, higher stock prices and an improved leading credit index. These were offset by a weaker ISM new orders index and higher initial unemployment insurance claims.
The coincident economic index ticked 0.1% higher after an unrevised 0.2% rise. The three-month growth rate eased to 2.1%, down from 2.9% in September. Nonfarm payroll employment, personal income less transfers and manufacturing & trade sales made positive contributions to the index while industrial production contributed negatively for a third straight month.
The lagging indicators series gained 0.3% after an unrevised 0.2% increase. Three-month growth in the index increased to 4.1%, but remained down from the 5.6% in July. More C&I loans, a higher consumer installment credit/personal income ratio and a stronger services CPI made the largest positive contributions to the index. An easier increase in labor costs and a lower inventory-to-sales ratio contributed negatively to the total's rise.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators is a measure of how the economy is performing versus its excesses. As the gain in the lagging series outpaced the coincident indicators, the ratio declined to its lowest level since April 2009, near the end of the last recession.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figures for the Consensus are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leading | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
Coincident | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
Lagging | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 |